The Arkansas Weather Hawk's Blog

      Hey Everybody, how's it going today?!! I said on social media two weeks ago that I would do an "Official Thanksgiving Forecast" on the 15th... But the 15th came, and I wasn't confident with the model guidance at that time, so I decided to wait a little while longer! I know I had some people messaging me, and even calling me "Hey Omarr, You said you was doing the forecast, what's going on!?" I didn't forget or anything, I've actually been faithfully studying the weather models, and data very closely as of late. I just, like I say, wasn't too confident in the model guidance at the moment. I wanted to give it more runs to see exactly what in all the models would "Mesh" on if you will. So at this point in the game, I believe I have a fairly clear picture of how thanksgiving will turn out. But, before I get to thanksgiving, I should mention, today (Friday, November 17th 2017) we have a fairly strong frontal boundary about to Segway...

     Heyy Everybody, how are you all this morning! I know it's pretty early, I'm typing this up @04:10am, I will most likely share it @0600. But yess, the title is VERY INDICATIVE of what we have to come!  I've gotten SOO many questions from different people regarding what November Looks like!  Well, it's going to be warm, and cold, wet, and dry 😂😂 Lol let's break it down.      Okay so as far as rain, you guys pretty much know that as a forecaster, I study 3 main wather models for my forecast, and forcast thoughts. The NAM (North American Model), the GFS (Global Forecasting System), and the CFS (Canadian Forecasting System), sometimes a forth being the EURO (European Weather Model), those are the general 3-4 models I look at, and just study for new adventures. Now I do check others like the RAP (Rapid Refresh Model), and the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh). But the main 3 have the bigger hidden sins. So the NAM is picking up on scattered s...