The Arkansas Weather Hawk's Blog

        Hey Everybody, How's It Going!? I hope Everybody is safe, and all is going well as we approach Christmas 2020! Like everything else this year, the weather has been on a true roll! I was dead on some updates ago when I released my official Fall Forecast, along with some Winter predictions, because  so far this has been a very busy season for forecasters! From one possibility of Severe Weather, to Several Possibilities for Winter Weather, and so far Two Winter Weather events into the season! Now for the Third? This is the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh Weather Model), this particular model is a 48 hour model, it tends to be fairly accurate, and dependable in the short range. According to this one Model, the Onset for Winter Precipitation in the state is between the Hours of 3pm and 6pm in the afternoon on Tuesday December 15th. But the Precipitation then starts to drift East into Central Arkansas around 6pm Tuesday Evening.  ...

     Hey Everybody, How's it going!? So Today, and Tonight (December 13th, 2020), we got really good Snow totals out of North, and Northwest Arkansas. I think my last forecast was dead on the money with who was going to get Snow, I didn't want to commit too much to the totals because who, gets how much is a matter of throwing a dart at the wall. But I knew there would be some places in North Arkansas that got accumulating Snowfall to say the least. So far, we have managed to get a mixture of Precipitation here in Central Arkansas with scattered reports of rain/snow mix, but no accumulations will come out of it. So now, WHAT'S NEXT?           Well speaking of the word "Next," there's another chance for some Winter Precipitation in Arkansas on Tuesday Evening, and Night.  Okay so this is the Latest Data Set of the NAM (North American Model), this image is valid between the Hours of 6pm and 9pm Tuesday evening. This model is projecting some Wint...

       Hey everybody, how's it going!? I said a couple of Updates back that a shot at some Winter Precipitation before Christmas was possible!!! Here we are today 24 Hours away from a fairly decent chance at some accumulating Winter Weather in the State. Now about 2 weeks ago, we did have a brief mix from Rain-Sleet in Central Arkansas. Certain Higher Elevations in the state switched completely over from rain to snow, but the difference between then, and now is what happened some weeks ago wasn't planned, it was possible but not planned or anticipated, this system is anticipated to bring Wintery Precipitation into Arkansas. So let's not waste any more time, let's get right into this.               So this is the Latest Data Set of the NAM (North American Model), this map is valid between 12Noon and 3pm Sunday Evening, and the model projects a changeover from rain to snow already in Northwest Arkansas. Due to the Ons...

              Hey Everybody! I hope everything is going well with everyone, and I hope everybody had a safe Thanksgiving and Black Friday Holiday! The weather was pleasant on Thanksgiving, was a bit on the cool side Thanksgiving night, I saw some sprinkles in spots around Central Arkansas, but nothing else remarkable, which was good. The Weather Models have flopped a little bit regarding this upcoming Winter Weather situation that I cover in my previous Weather Update.               Now 2 days ago, I made an update sharing my predictions based on the GFS Weather Model. In that update, the GFS noted Freezing Temperatures in Central Arkansas Monday-Thursday of next week. Over the last few Model runs, the GFS and EURO have both warmed up on Wednesday, and both models are consistent on Mid - Low 30s Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday Mornings of next week. At first there were some talks about the Possibility of ...

          How's it Going everybody!? I hope all is well, and everybody is staying safe out there! Here in Arkansas as some of you know, we have Two primary Severe Weather Seasons. We tend to see Severe Weather mors commonly in the transition months when the atmosphere transitions from Cold to Hot, Hot to Cold. The Transition of the atmosphere tends to create a lot of instability with frontal systems that move through, unstable climate conditions create lot's of "Wind Shear" (Turning of the Wind with Height,) thus giving incoming storm systems the leverage to rotate, or produce lot's of Severe Thunderstorm force winds. It's not uncommon here in Arkansas for us to see Tornadoes on Thanksgiving, and Christmas. Halloween is usually cold, and damp, but Thanksgiving and Christmas isn't uncommon to have Tornado Sirens and Lightning around here. So that being said, we are only just a couple of weeks away from Thanksgiving, and here we have today, November 14th, 20...

        GoodMorning, Evening, and Night friends, family, and followers! Thanks' for coming here to the Arkansas Weather Hawk's Blog today! I appreciate everybody's continuing support! In this post I'm going to breakdown my expectations of this Fall leading into this Winter! As if the Year 2020 couldn't get crazy enough with everything else going on in the world, the Weather decided to join the Purge too! Arkansas weather like everything else in 2020, has been on strike, and protesting! We have had 44 Tornadoes so far as of October 2020, our yearly average is 33.... So there's that! We started off the Fall Season with Severe Weather, and will likely finish off the Fall Season with Unusually Dry Weather! Let's break this down!             So about Halloween 2020, I expect this cooler trend in the temperatures to continue. I was looking over previous runs of the GFS (Global Forecasting System), I've been seeing a warming trend in day...

        Hey everybody! How's it Going!? I'm Omarr Wilson, better known as "The Arkansas Weather Hawk" for all the new people tuning in that don't know! I have thousands of New Followers, and I cannot begin to describe to you guys how much the support mean to me! But enough of that, on to this Lady named Laura!! Laura is a brand new Hurricane in the The Gulf Of Mexico that is going NUTS!!!! Typical Woman right 😂😂😂 Laura is taking Dead aim at Arkansas in the next couple of days. ! Laura is bringing some SERIOUS SMOKE to Arkansas, so let's dive into the expectations, and possibilities! No, we're literally about to "DIVE In", in every aspect of the phrase!          Okay, so about Hurricane Laura. What are the Threats? And, where? The Current threats are the whole 9 yards; Wind, Flooding, Severe Weather, Tornadoes, ALL OF THAT! ALL MODES of Severe Weather are 100% Possible with Hurricane Laura, as she makes her way across Arkansas! She's litera...

      Hey Everybody, I hope all is well, and Everybody is remaining safe, and alive, and well amidst this very irritating time in everybody's lives. I been Getting a Lot of Questions recently about future chances for rain, or anymore relief from the Daytime Arkansauna that we've been having... Well, there's good news, then there's bad news!       Now for the Good News about any type of relief from the "Arkansauna" as I like to call it. At night, over the weekend, the Nighttime lows will be in the Low 70s. I know Low 70s isn't necessarily "Relief" when it's been nearly 100° all day, but anything is better than 100° temperatures right!? And, More Good News for certain areas of the state, there will be scattered hit or miss rain showers in areas of West, South, and North Arkansas. I don't expect much widespread rain or thunderstorm coverage.       Now for the Bad News! Over the Weekend, and next week the Actual Air Temperatures will creep V...