Wet Independence Day Forecast !
GoodMorning Everybody, How've you all been! I HOPE everybody has had a fair summer thus far! The weather has been very uneventful throughout the end of spring with just a few Scattered Severe Storms, nothing too out of the ordinary. The month of June was very dull, HOT, HUMID, and Uneventful. After going a Whole Month without substantial widespread rain, We are set to get Widespread Statewide Rain when we need it to be dry the most! 4th of July Holiday! I would've taken it raining Friday, Saturday, or even Sunday of our 4th of July Weekend, but NO! It wants to rain on the MAIN DAY! I'll explain the chances, as well as my full prediction below.
Okay so here's the deal, a front conveniently wants to make it's way out of the plains of USA and into Arkansas This morning, I'm typing this at 3:33am Local time, and the front is currently in Northwest Arkansas at this time. Now as this front move through it will somewhat slow down as it cross over the mountains of North Arkansas and Scattered Showers and thundershowers will hang out for the Morning of July 4th Holiday (Today), we may get some BRIEF clearing this Afternoon as the early morning waves of showers move East. But then late in the afternoon, early evening the front will sweep on across the state getting out of here hopefully around 9:30pm-10pm. Just in time for Most of the Fireworks Displays in Central Arkansas. Now here's something to ponder on, Everybody knows I watch 3 main weather models; the NAM (North American Model), GFS (Global Forecasting System), and CMC (Canadian Model). The NAM is showing Widespread rain coverage statewide overnight and into Tuesday, the GFS shows the same. I do think it's accurate to a degree, but there will be some breaks in the rain. Most showers will be SCATTERED, AND HIT&MISS in Nature!
As far as My Prediction Goes, I do think EVERYBODY in the State of Arkansas will get rain. Some people will get impressive rain totals honestly. But however, the Showers will be RANDOM, SCATTERED, and Hit&Miss! So I'm NOT expecting a full all day Washout, but showers will be heavy, and Off&On. So don't be surprised if it pours, and you see a little Lightning! As far as Tonight, well for East Arkansas, it's bad business all together..... For Central Arkansas, it's sketchy! Most models show coverage through Midnight, I however think that once that front clear the Mountains it will sink southeast a lot quicker and those storms and showers MIGHT be out before 10pm for Central Arkansas, it's a CHANCE! But the Clouds will be Low and Overcast, so that can play a part in how well you see the Fireworks. For West Arkansas, it's safe to say that by tonight I think you guys are all clear of Rain.
Okay so here's the deal, a front conveniently wants to make it's way out of the plains of USA and into Arkansas This morning, I'm typing this at 3:33am Local time, and the front is currently in Northwest Arkansas at this time. Now as this front move through it will somewhat slow down as it cross over the mountains of North Arkansas and Scattered Showers and thundershowers will hang out for the Morning of July 4th Holiday (Today), we may get some BRIEF clearing this Afternoon as the early morning waves of showers move East. But then late in the afternoon, early evening the front will sweep on across the state getting out of here hopefully around 9:30pm-10pm. Just in time for Most of the Fireworks Displays in Central Arkansas. Now here's something to ponder on, Everybody knows I watch 3 main weather models; the NAM (North American Model), GFS (Global Forecasting System), and CMC (Canadian Model). The NAM is showing Widespread rain coverage statewide overnight and into Tuesday, the GFS shows the same. I do think it's accurate to a degree, but there will be some breaks in the rain. Most showers will be SCATTERED, AND HIT&MISS in Nature!
As far as My Prediction Goes, I do think EVERYBODY in the State of Arkansas will get rain. Some people will get impressive rain totals honestly. But however, the Showers will be RANDOM, SCATTERED, and Hit&Miss! So I'm NOT expecting a full all day Washout, but showers will be heavy, and Off&On. So don't be surprised if it pours, and you see a little Lightning! As far as Tonight, well for East Arkansas, it's bad business all together..... For Central Arkansas, it's sketchy! Most models show coverage through Midnight, I however think that once that front clear the Mountains it will sink southeast a lot quicker and those storms and showers MIGHT be out before 10pm for Central Arkansas, it's a CHANCE! But the Clouds will be Low and Overcast, so that can play a part in how well you see the Fireworks. For West Arkansas, it's safe to say that by tonight I think you guys are all clear of Rain.
I know this isn't the news most people in Central, East, and Southeast Arkansas want to hear. But for some reason it ALWAYS rain on the 4th, so it shouldn't be terribly shocking. But just expect random downpours throughout the day. I watched this setup for about 4 days now and I hoped it would speed up and come through Overnight Sunday and be out by this morning, but it's staying on track unfortunately. Sorry to be the Bear of Bad News! If you have any questions, you just have to ask! Have a Very happy, and SAFE 4th of July Holiday Folks! Feels good to be on the blog again updating about weather! I love it, and I love Y'all! Have a Great Day!
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