PRELIMINARY Christmas Winter Weather Forecast

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      Hey everybody, how's it going? I hope everybody is having a fantastic day so far! I've been watching the GFS very closely over the last 6-7 model runs, and I've been watching something fairly interesting over the last few runs. The GFS has been fairly consistent with the possibilities, but inconsistent with the exact time, and locations as to be expected from 300+ hours out into the future. But from this far in advance the GFS is fairly consistent with the possibilities. So let's take a quick look shall we!?
This is the Tuesday noon run of the GFS (Global Forecasting System) weather model, and as you can see here, the GFS has a system moving in from the Southwest, and a arctic front moving in from the Northwest , combine those two, and this is the obvious possibility. But this image has changed in location, and time over the last 4-5 runs, so it will change much more over the next. But this particular model has been consistent with this particular outcome, or possibility at least, around Christmas Eve/Christmas Day.
 This is the GFS @Noon on Christmas Eve, and it has statewide precipitation. But I will say this once again, this is 312 Hours into the future, nothing is of any certainty until 36-48 hours in advance of a system. So that being said, we have a long way to go, but Snow on Christmas eve, or day is in the realm of possibilities, and the GFS weather model is reflecting as such.

I did look at the temperature map for the GFS, and it shows high 20s on the night of Christmas Eve, low 40s on Christmas Day, and high 30s on Christmas Night. Now 300+ hours in advance, that is nowhere near set in stone, but it is a nice preliminary look. Over the next several days, and week or so, this WILL CHANGE. I will follow the changes, and THE WEEKEND BEFORE CHRISTMAS, I will do an "Official Christmas Forecast" showing everything that has changed between now and then, and what my expectations are for Christmas as well as New Years. STAY TUNED!!! Thanks for coming here to the Arkansas Weather Hawk's Blog, Have a good night Everybody!

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