SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE 04/28/2020: 50 Million In Danger‼️

       Hey Everybody, GoodMorning! I hope everybody is continuing to stay safe, and somewhat stress free under the circumstances going on in the country. This Storm season has been VERY active needless to say. Here in Arkansas, today we have yet another significant chance for a major Outbreak of Severe Weather. We've had consistent Severe Weather events every week for the last couple of weeks. This week there is now a Moderate Risk for Severe Weather in parts of Arkansas for today (Tuesday, April 28th, 2020), this evening, and tonight. Let's get into the details.
       At First there was a Slight risk for Severe Weather over mostly the West, and Central 1/2 of Arkansas Tuesday evening, and night. The concerns were mainly just hail, and damamging straight lined winds. But the confidence for Torndaoes has increased due to a couple of factors; one being the shear amount of wind energy associated with this system, there's a low pressure system in the Midwest moving due East, but it's rotating in a southerly direction very deep, and very fast into the South, with the speed, and momentum associated with this frontal boundary comes incredible wind energy from the front, and back of the system. Along with the Wind Energy, there is a stream of southerly warm moist air that will be in place, which will provide sufficient surface-based instability for storms to grow, and become Tornadic. This system will develop in an unstable area, in the warmest time period of the day (Late Afternoon-Evening Hours), all of these factors combined set's the stage for the great concern of tornadoes, and damamging wind events to take place.

This is a graph put together by the National Weather Service in North Little Rock. This shows the "troughing" or the deep southerly dive of that frontal boundary that I mentioned earlier. This just show's what I was saying in a picture. When you have troughing that deep, it's a clear indicator of some very serious wind energy associated with the Frontal Boundary itself. This will appear as a "Bowed Out" Squall Line of Storms moving from Left to Right on the Radar across the state. Usually those "Bowed Out" Echos on the radar contain Straight Lined Winds of 60MPH PLUS! 

This is an updated risk forecast from the Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma. This shows the Slight Risk for the entire state, meaning there will be a chance for everybody to see Severe Weather of some type in the entire state. The Enhanced Risk is the orange area, it means this is an area with heightened concern for Severe Weather including tornadoes.  That Enhanced area includes West Arkansas, and Central Arkansas, including the Little Rock Metropolitan area. Then there's the Moderate Risk for Severe Weather in West Arkansas, this means that there WILL be Severe Weather, and there WILL be Tornadoes, maybe a couple in this area. 

As far as timing goes, I'm expecting scattered showers throughout the day. If we get enough scattered showers in the state, that could minimize the Severe threat due to the cooling of the atmosphere from all of the rain. Otherwise, I expect development of Severe Weather late this Afternoon between the hours of 3-6pm in West/Northwest Arkansas. These Storms should get to Central Arkansas between 10pm and Midnight, and East Arkansas between Midnight and 3am. Everything should be cleared out by 3am Wednesday Morning. If there is as much wind energy as projected, there will be property damage, and there will be power outages as well.! If the Intability hold up, there will be Tornadoes both ahead and along the Squall Line! Today could get ugly, so stay aware of your surroundings!