Forecasting The Weather

       Hey Everybody, My name is Omarrian Wilson. Professionally, I'm known as "The Arkansas Weather Hawk." I've been Chasing Tornadoes for Many years, I've been forecasting the Weather since Highschool. Weather Forecasting is a Very complex set of procedures, and the art of forecasting severe weather to any degree of accuracy requires distinct knowledge of weather statistics, atmospheric dynamics, and a unique interpretation of what it is you're looking at when you look at weather maps, and graphics, and weather data collectively. In this article, I will breakdown what goes into a weather forecast, and how Meteorologist can predict historic weather outbreaks like the outbreak of December 10th, 2021. 

      So, a basic forecast of any weather anomaly (Event), will start with a look, or a breakdown of a weather model, or a set of weather models. The National Weather Service release Weather Balloons into the atmosphere several times each day, in multiple different locations around the Country. Weather Balloons carry scientific instruments through several different layers of the atmosphere, and transmit measurements, and data back to computers on the ground. That information is highly criticized by scientists around the country that develope weather forecast based off of that data. Certain instruments on weather balloons can measure certain things; like Instability in the atmosphere, Wind Turbulence, High Counts of Moisture in the Atmosphere, Air Temperatures, etc. Based off of those recordings, and findings, you compare that to previous days of similar environmental findings, and you can create a "Profile", or "Guess", or Forecast of what you expect the weather to do tomorrow, or the next 7 days! Now, due to the technology available, we have weather models that can go as far as 300 Hours into the Future. Now, the degree of certainty 300 hours into the future is highly questionable, but it's a general picture, or Idea of what the weather possibilities are.

       Now, when a Meteorologist see a chance for Severe Weather 300 Hours into the future, they will "note" in the back of their minds' that this particular weather model as of Today shows the possibility of severe weather within the next 10-15 days, but they don't "Bank" on that if you will. What they will look for after that within the coming days are consistency at this point. So what "model consistency" refers to, is the notion that this one particular model shows a chance for Severe Weather next week today. But the next day this one particular model still continues to show this chance for severe weather, and it's not budging, now at this point, we are several "Model Runs" after that initial time this one particular weather model showed this possibility, and this possibility is still there. Weather Models are updated several times each day, they change, and flip flop between each update. But, model consistency refers to when one model, after several of updates continues to show the same thing, then the chance for severe weather on whatever day within the next 10 days begins to be taken more seriously by Meteorologist. So, as we progress closer, and closer in time to the day that this particular model shows a chance for Severe Weather, we start to compare what this model is saying, to what other models are saying. When all weather models start to show the same thing, the degree of certainty begins to grow about whether we can take this threat seriously or not. 

       So now the warning process begins. When Weather models have lined up, and they all show a distinct chance for severe weather, and the weather models maintain their model consistency upto within 7 days of the day that severe weather is expected, we begin into broadcast the chance for severe weather on the daily news, this is when you will find daytime Meteorologist telling viewers on TV that there is a chance for bad weather on said day. As time progresses to within 4-3 Days of the day that bad weather is expected, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), inside of the National Weather Service headquarters will issue a Severe Wetaher Outlook, briefly describing what types of severe weather is expected, what's possible, and a general area of where it is expected. On these Weather Outlooks issued by SPC, the outlook will have a Color Chart from Green(being the Lowest Chance of severe weather), to a Pink/Purple (Being the absolute highest degree of certainty that there will be dangerous weather in said area). Once we get to the day of the expected Severe Weather event, or threat, depending on the particular threats associated with the expected event the Storm Prediction Center will Issue a Severe Weather Watch of some kind. If the data collected with the Weather Maps suggests that there is a threat for Tornadoes, general or Widespread, and there's a high degree of certainty among the Meteorologist looking at this data that agrees with that, then The Storm Prediction Center will issue a Tornado Watch for whichever area this threat exist. The exact same procedures exist for General Severe Weather, excluding Tornadoes. 

      Where does Weather Forecasting begin to breakdown? Well in Weather Forecasting as is in all guessing games, there is a high amount of variables that could be wrong, or that could change, which would alter the outcome of what actually happens in real life versus, the weather forecast. Part of this issue is, Computers are precise, they work on numbers and measurements, nothing about Mother Nature is precise. So where the disconnect is, when a computer makes a projection, it's based off of numbers, so that paints a definite picture to a computer. But in Mother Nature, if a System moves over a mountain range, the wind will slow down, the degree, or direction the wind or system may go at that point is random, and circumstantial. So this is why, Meteorologist don't necessarily bank on What weather models say, because you can look at a model and see one thing, but for one reason or another the opposite can happen. This is life, and this is the disconnect between Weather Forecasting, and what actually happens in the real world. Sometimes what a weather model will project actually does play out in Real Life, sometimes it doesn't. But the overall goal of predicting severe weather, and broadcasting it is to alert the general public to the possibilities of what might happen. 

     The General purpose of this article was to shed a little light on how the Forecasting process works, just for people to better understand where and how Meteorologist can predict, and detect weather events days in advance. This just shows the general process of it all, there is a lot more in depth work that goes into weather Forecasting, but this is the work in a nutshell so to speak. Thank You for visiting the Arkansas Weather Hawk's Blog, and if you made it this far, thank you for your support!