**SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE** #TuesdayTroubles

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      Hey, good evening everybody! How's it going! I've looked into the newest model guidance, and pretty much the only thing I'm unsure about at this current moment is timing, as far as when this Severe Weather is expected to setup. Now, again as I stated last night in my previous weather update, MY MAIN CONCERNS are Damaging Thunderstorm Winds, and the possibility for large damaging Hail. Those are my primary concerns at this time, Tornadoes are possible but not incredibly likely. I will go over my uncertainties below.
      My main uncertainty here is timing. The NAM (North American Forecast Model) has one single Squall Line moving through Early in the day on Tuesday, and that's it! Nothing else behind it. Now, even with that scenario, we have to watch the storm cells that form out ahead of the line itself. If anything can get organized, then we have a problem. Okay now that's the NAM...... The GFS (Global Forecasting System) is saying something a little bit different! The GFS Show's a Line Moving through Early morning Tuesday, then some clearing during the day (We'll have to watch that, too much sunshine will raise our Tornado Threat), then later Tuesday Night and into Wednesday, it shows another Squall Line with the front itself moving on through from left to right (West To East). If the GFS was to verify the Tuesday Evening Setup is the one we'd have to watch out for.
 
Here is a "Convective Outlook" Map Courtesy of the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma. This is their latest outlook map, it hasn't changed much since last night. Southwest, through Central, and the whole North Half of Arkansas is under an "Enhanced Risk" for severe weather. That just basically means "Area of Concern within a general area of concern."


What do I expect to happen? Honestly at this point, I think the GFS is the more likely scenario to play out with this. I think in the morning their will be scattered storms somewhere in the state, they may be strong but not too bad, they will blow off, and we'll clear out for our day on Tuesday. As far as how serious stuff gets on Tuesday Night, I think it really just depends on how warm it get during the day on Tuesday. If we get PROLONGED hours of Sunshine, and 80 degree temperatures, then we'll have to watch more carefully for TORNADOES, AND ANY STORMS THAT GET ORGANIZED.I do expect a Tornado Watch at some point tomorrow. I will do ANOTHER Severe Weather Update in the morning for any changes in this developing situation. Thanks for coming here to the Weather Hawk's Blog!!

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