Official Christmas Weather Forecast 2017

       Hey everybody how's it going today! I hope all has been well. Yesterday, and Monday we got phenomenal shots at much needed rain across the state. As predicted the bulk of the rain remained in South Central Arkansas, they got some of the highest totals, which is GREAT the farmers out there needed that. Here in Central Arkansas we got decent amounts of rain. I enjoyed the rain, got great rest, I even heard a few rumbles of thunder here in Little Rock.! Now moving past that, we have other shots of rain coming in this weekend, and chance for some flurries at some point after everything is done. Let's dive into this!
     Okay, so on my "Preliminary Christmas Weather Forecast" I made last week I was somewhat excited about at least just the possibility for winter weather on Christmas. The models where being somewhat consistent on some type of frozen stuff around Christmas, well within that weekend. BUT, in that very same weather update I stated it was 8+ days out, and there is NO WAY to guarantee the models to be any type of correct or accurate from that far out in time. I said "THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS", and low and behold the weather models have flip flopped over 12 times even in the past 5 days LOL. Weather Models are TERRIBLE in accuracy in the long range. So Where are we NOW(Wednesday December 20th?)
    Well, right now the weather models are leaning more so towards a huge rain maker on Friday night into Saturday morning, and possibly into Saturday evening. This is looking to be the most rain we've had all year to be completely honest.This system is a major rain maker with some areas expected to see in access of 6" of rainfall, with local amounts HIGHER! Now, as far as snow or frozen stuff is concerned, the bulk of the moisture is expected to be out ahead of the cold front itself so the rain will be in the warm sector. Now I think the weather models are being very conservative with the placement of the cold air. The weather models have the cold air in North Arkansas through much of the day Saturday, and doesn't really punch it in until Sunday evening (Christmas Eve). Personally I think that's very conservative, I believe the cold air will sink on in much quicker than that. See Pictures Below:

Now this is the Wednesday Evening 18z Run of the GFS (Global Forecasting System) weather model, this image is valid for Friday evening, it clearly shows where the front is. We're still in the 50s which is a bit cooler from expected mid 60s on Thursday evening. 

Now this is the GFS Saturday Morning, it still at this point has the bulk of the cold air NORTH of Arkansas. I don't know if I exactly buy into that, because like I say, models tend to run very conservative on cold air, it's heavier, denser, and it sinks quicker

 than models pick up on. So I think that air will already be here.

Now this map is the Wednesday Evening 18Z run of the NAM (North American Model), this is valid Saturday Morning, and it's a bit different in terms of PLACEMENT of the cold air. I THINK, the cold air will even be more south than THIS, but however I do think the NAM has a better handle on the cold air then the GFS. 

Okay this is the Precip map of the NAM this is valid Saturday morning same time as the temperature map above, and you can see a huge shield of rain basically covering the entire state. NOW, where we get our chances for a mix, changeover, or some flurries is, if I'm correct about the temperatures as I stated above, and that cold air sinks a bit further to the south then that will give us a chance for a changeover further south into central Arkansas. 

Now this is the NAM Valid between 6pm and 9pm Friday night, see there's a changeover at that point in Central Oklahoma, something is telling me that it's possible for that cold air to move faster than this model is letting on, and as you can see the rain is projected to really start ramping up at this point. So as you can see, the potential is there!

Now this is the GFS Valid Christmas Morning it has temperatures in the deep 30s on Christmas Morning with highs in the Low 40s in Central Arkansas. So no doubt, Christmas will be COLD!!! There is NO precips projected at any point during the day on Christmas, or that morning. So Christmas day itself will be dry, and it will be COLD!

So, with all of this being said, to sum it all up, we will get 2 more chances of rain; Friday Morning, Friday Night, and Saturday morning. Temperatures will drop south on Friday evening, which in my opinion depending of LOCATION AND SPEED of the cold air behind the front may or may NOT give us a chance for a brief changeover, or some flurries on Saturday Morning. The rain will be gone by Sunday (Christmas Eve) and the cold air will set in over the region in which it will remain throughout the Christmas holiday..... This is my Official Christmas Weather Forecast of 2017, of course ANY OF THIS is still capable of changing, this is Arkansas let's not forget! If you have any questions or input, please feel free!! Thank You Guys for coming here to the Weather Hawk's Blog you guys have a great rest of your night.! 

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