How Do I Make My Forecast Predictions?
Hey Everybody! How you all doing!? I've gotten messages over the past few weeks regarding exactly how I make my decisions, and predictions on the weather? More over, I've gotten specified questions regarding exactly how accurate I believe my forecast to be over others, and how confident I am in my predictions being Right... I mean I guess since I'm considered an "Amateur Weather Forecaster" because I don't work directly for the news, or the National Weather Service at this specific time, I'm somewhat of an "Unknown" in the Weather community. I tend to only come along when there's a Major Weather Event that warrant's my attention... I mainly do that because I'm into weather for the SERIOUS aspect of it, mean don't get me wrong, all of it is serious. But by "Serious" I mean the "A Tornado Is Coming, You Need to Take Cover Now!" aspect of it. I get a THRILL out of Tracking storms that based off of what I SEE, Momentum, Trajectory, Intensity, and HISTORY of that particular storms, looks to me like they are going to cause a serious threat to human, and environmental life, and property. I love to track these storms and WARN people that they are in mortal danger.That's what I Love to do.MY PASSION in Life is to take that "Love" one step further...... I THRIVE off of Chasing these deadly storms down, and relaying the shear totality of how deadly that situation is to ANYBODY that lives, or is Located near that storm. THIS is what I live for. I can say on a Live Blog in front of THOUSANDS of people that come here to read what I have to say, that IF it had not been for my shear PASSION, and LOVE of What I do, then I would not be here today.
Now to get to the point of how I base my predictions. Well, first thing's first, I look at 3 main weather models; NAM (North American Model), GFS (Global Forecasting System), and the CMC (Canadian Weather Model). Those are the 3 main models I tend to study a lot, now other models that I'm looking at are the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model), ERURO (European Weather Model), and the ERURO High Res ( High Resolution Variant of the European Model). Now, when I Look at these models, I'm looking for changes in the Atmosphere around the state of Arkansas, and areas to the North, West, and Southwest of Arkansas (Those are the directions 98% of our weather comes from.) What I'm looking for specifically are changes in wind direction, isobaric pressures, wind gradients, or other climatological conditions that are indicative of any activities in the weather that might warrant special attention. The NAM is run 4 times per day, the GFS, and CMC is run twice a day, now when I say "Run" I mean "Updated." So, if I wake up @6am one morning to check the models, and something peaks my interest, I check the models periodically as the day goes on and as the runs come in to see if anything changes, I adjust my predictions accordingly. NOW, with all of that being said, a forecast don't just Stop and Start with the weather models. Weather Models are nothing but computer generated graphics that are taken from measurements, those measurements USUALLY are not accurate until a weather system is on land and observation measurements have been taken, so actually believing a weather model in the long distance before measurements are taken isn't wise. So, from there I wait........ When some time has elapsed, and accurate measurements have been taken, and I now have a clearer picture on a system that has peaked my interest, NOW I can develop a forecast. I take what I see from the weather models, and compare it to what has happened in the past with similar systems, and I take into the account of how based off of my expertise I think that system will interact with our atmosphere based on it's current setting, and I base my forecast, and I start to paint a picture (The Most Accurate Picture I can of how I expect things to play out) to the general public. &That is usually, in a nutshell how I base my forecast of a Storm System, that I feel would have a impact, or impose a danger to human life.
Now, predicting how a Season will turn out is a little bit more complex. I will do a post regarding that pretty soon. But I just wanted to give a reply to some questions that has come up regarding how I get my predictions, and what it is exactly that I base my forecasts off of. I'm not going to toot my own horn here, but I have a 79% accuracy rate... So USUALLY my forecast are right, I'm not incorrect all to often. I receive great feedback on my details that I put into my forecast, and how I break down my words so people under stand them. If anybody has any questions plz feel free to ask.! &Yess, I'm about to start doing WEEKLY FORECAST, more sooner than Later! Thanx for coming here to the Weather Hawk's Blog everybody. IF, you actually read all of this, YOU ARE FREAKING AWESOME!!! Thanks!!
Now to get to the point of how I base my predictions. Well, first thing's first, I look at 3 main weather models; NAM (North American Model), GFS (Global Forecasting System), and the CMC (Canadian Weather Model). Those are the 3 main models I tend to study a lot, now other models that I'm looking at are the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model), ERURO (European Weather Model), and the ERURO High Res ( High Resolution Variant of the European Model). Now, when I Look at these models, I'm looking for changes in the Atmosphere around the state of Arkansas, and areas to the North, West, and Southwest of Arkansas (Those are the directions 98% of our weather comes from.) What I'm looking for specifically are changes in wind direction, isobaric pressures, wind gradients, or other climatological conditions that are indicative of any activities in the weather that might warrant special attention. The NAM is run 4 times per day, the GFS, and CMC is run twice a day, now when I say "Run" I mean "Updated." So, if I wake up @6am one morning to check the models, and something peaks my interest, I check the models periodically as the day goes on and as the runs come in to see if anything changes, I adjust my predictions accordingly. NOW, with all of that being said, a forecast don't just Stop and Start with the weather models. Weather Models are nothing but computer generated graphics that are taken from measurements, those measurements USUALLY are not accurate until a weather system is on land and observation measurements have been taken, so actually believing a weather model in the long distance before measurements are taken isn't wise. So, from there I wait........ When some time has elapsed, and accurate measurements have been taken, and I now have a clearer picture on a system that has peaked my interest, NOW I can develop a forecast. I take what I see from the weather models, and compare it to what has happened in the past with similar systems, and I take into the account of how based off of my expertise I think that system will interact with our atmosphere based on it's current setting, and I base my forecast, and I start to paint a picture (The Most Accurate Picture I can of how I expect things to play out) to the general public. &That is usually, in a nutshell how I base my forecast of a Storm System, that I feel would have a impact, or impose a danger to human life.
Now, predicting how a Season will turn out is a little bit more complex. I will do a post regarding that pretty soon. But I just wanted to give a reply to some questions that has come up regarding how I get my predictions, and what it is exactly that I base my forecasts off of. I'm not going to toot my own horn here, but I have a 79% accuracy rate... So USUALLY my forecast are right, I'm not incorrect all to often. I receive great feedback on my details that I put into my forecast, and how I break down my words so people under stand them. If anybody has any questions plz feel free to ask.! &Yess, I'm about to start doing WEEKLY FORECAST, more sooner than Later! Thanx for coming here to the Weather Hawk's Blog everybody. IF, you actually read all of this, YOU ARE FREAKING AWESOME!!! Thanks!!
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