Severe Weather Update 3/6/2019: Saturday Storms

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      Good Afternoon Everybody, I hope everybody's having a fantastic day so far. I've been watching over the models, and I've noticed that there is a system coming in this weekend. This will pose some sort of Severe Weather this weekend.
    The wind field with this particular system will be substantially strong. Anytime you have a strong wind field, with moisture, and some Instability (even a little bit), there lies a threat for Severe Weather. So, with that being said, there is a threat for Severe Weather on Saturday afternoon for South, and Central Arkansas, and Saturday Evening for East, and Southeast Arkansas. The threat for Tornadoes is low at this time, the main concern here is Damaging Straight Lined Wind. Tornadoes will not be ruled out. It's only Wednesday *This May Change in the coming days*.
 This is the 6am Wednesday Morning run of the GFS (Global Forecasting System), here it shows CAPE values highest in South Central Arkansas. CAPE stands for "Convective Available Potential Energy," it's essentially the measure of Instability in the atmosphere on a graph. Highest Values are in South Arkansas. When CAPE values are present, or at least weak at best, that's a chance for Severe Weather. I wouldn't say Tornadoes are Likely at this point, but they are possible. 
This is a Graph and Forecast issued by the National Weather Service in North Little Rock. It lines pretty much up with what I said. Main area of concern will be in South Arkansas where the highest Instability is present. Instability is Low, so I do not believe Tornadoes are likely, but Instability is present, so Tornadoes are possible. 

Now remember, this is Wednesday. We are talking about Saturday, so things can still change, when or if they do, I will do updates as needed. Thanks for Coming here to the Weather Hawk's Blog, have a good Day everybody!

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