Weather Model Wars!! WINTER WEATHER UPDATE!!

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     The GFS (Global Forecasting System) overnight run of the model data has intensified it's snowfall for areas of North Central and Central Arkansas. The GFS has tended to be fairly reliable in recent years. It is one of the Main Forecast Models weather forecasters look at for weather analysis. And It has really turned up the intensity it's snowfall amounts for Central Arkansas. Sometimes during the winter the GFS tends to be a little out there or dramatic.  But at times so does the NAM (North American Model).  Winter time is one of the most challenging and fun times to forecast and predict Weather in Arkansas because you just don't know what will happen. But the Overnight run of the GFS brings a heavy band of Snow/Sleet into Central Arkansas by 3AM Monday Morning. While I do think Central Arkansas will get some Type of Frozen Precipitation Sunday Night/Monday Morning the Jury is still out on how much,  or how heavy.  Now around the Same time of night (3AM Monday Morning) the NAM Weather Model has scattered lingering LIGHT Snow or Sleet Showers drapped across Central Arkansas. So the difference between these two Very reliable Weather models is like Night and Day.  Here's some Screenshots of the Weather Models Starting GFS First.
Now as you can see the GFS Weather Model in between 12 and 3AM Monday Morning has a pretty heavy band near or In Central Arkansas. If this is to Verify we would have moderate to possibly Significant amounts in some areas of the state and possibly central Arkansas. But this is just ONE Weather Model out of many. This may Change as the updates come throughout the Day.  

Now this is the NAM Weather Model. As you can see there is like a night and day type of difference. Completely different story here. This is the same 12 to 3AM Monday Morning. This model shows not much. 

Now as for which model I believe. Honestly I don't believe either one of the Weather Models. I've been a Weather tracker for quite a while now. One thing that I have learned is that when winter Forecasting you can't put your trust in any of these Weather models. They will say one thing one minute and then completely change up on you.  I've learned to go off of history and my gut instinct. Honestly I know for sure SOMEBODY In this state will get snow or winter weather of some type. North Arkansas for SURE.  Central and North Central Arkansas?? The potential is There.  Cold air, moisture, I don't see why not.  How much? I can't say because I don't know. A dusting to an inch,  MAX.  We will just have to see. As all of you know the Arkansas Weather Hawk will be all over it here on the Weather Hawks Blogg and I appreciate all of you for choosing me to be your go to guy for Weather Information. GoodMorning everybody!!! 

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