**SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE** Monday Madness

     Hey Good Afternoon everybody,  how's it going!? Unfortunately the time has come for a threat of more Severe Weather here in Arkansas. The particular area of the state that I'm expecting to see the worst of the weather has already seen their fair share of severe weather this year already, and the season just got kicked off! East, and Northeast Arkansas. Areas to the East along, and to the North, and South of Interstate 40, generally East of the Little Rock metro is where I expect majority of the bad weather to be confined to.... This is based off of just timing of the Front itself! See Pictures Below:

Okay this is the Latest Run of the NAM (North American Model) this map is Surface Based Instability, this is around 6pm tonight and as you can see the instability is confined to areas north and south of Interstate 40 in East Arkansas. This is where we find our greatest chances for Severe Storms.

This is the NAM Tornado Map this is where the model guesstimates where the largest of the tornadoes could be..... This is just a computer based map, you can't take this likely. But I see that Red area being further into Northeast Arkansas much deeper into the Afternoon. But the thought of this is Correct!

Now this is the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) Model, it shows by 3pm this afternoon the threat for the largest Tornadoes being exactly where the NAM should be showing it, Central and Northeast Arkansas along and to the North of I-40

This is the Surface Based Instability map of the HRRR Model and it shows the chance for Severe Storms along and ahead of the Squall Line. This map is around 3pm and the CAPE (Measure of Instability) is very high along and ahead of the front.... What this tells us is that there is a really strong chance for those storms that do exist around this time within that unstable area to be very Strong to Severe, and Tornadoes are very common in environments like this. 

The Latest run of the Rapid Refresh shows the Squall Line to be at or near Central Arkansas at the time of all the Instability being centered around the East 1/2 of the state... So again, what that tells us is that some of those Scattered Storms that you see here can be very Strong to Severe, and Tornadoes are a real possibility. 

Now with all that being said, this is all GONE by 7pm..... I expect the severe weather threat to be done by 7pm. Now for the part that worries me, the Severe Weather will be moving through during some of the busiest hours of the day, when kids are getting out of school, and people are getting off of work. So PLEASE have a way to get Warning information bc should you get caught in your vehicle during a bad storm, or tornado, with your kids, that obviously wouldn't be good! 

At this Time, the Storm Prediction Center on Norman, Oklahoma has issued a Moderate risk for the EAST Border of Arkansas which means there is a Moderate Threat for Damaging Tornadoes, and Severe Storms. Everywhere else in the state has a Slight, and Enhanced threat. Main concerns across the state is large damaging hail stones, and high dangerous thunderstorm winds. But as I showed you, Tornadoes are Possible and somewhat Likely. But once that Squall line move through, it's OVER! I expect a Tornado watch This Evening for East Arkansas, Severe Thunderstorm Watch for all elsewhere. THANK YOU FOR COMING To the Arkansas Weather Hawks Blog, Stay Safe Everybody.!

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