October 9th 2K18: SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE

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       Hey Everybody, I hope everybody is having a fantastic day so far! I'm just wanting to bring everybody up to date regarding a developing Severe Weather situation that we have out in West Arkansas. At the moment we have two Tornado Watches in effect for the West side of the State. I do not anticipate a widespread Tornado outbreak, but I do however expect widespread Severe storms. The Tornado parameters are not really conducive for the development of Tornadoes here in Arkansas. But however, there is a line of Strong to Severe storms moving into the state, and due to the motion of the winds, and how sporadic in nature they tend to be, there is somewhat of a Tornado threat associated with the squall line itself. Because of that reason, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issued a Tornado Watch for the North and West 1/2 of Arkansas. I do expect that watch to be extended to the South to include areas of Southwest, and West Central Arkansas.
This is the CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) map of the latest run of the NAM (North American Model) Weather Model. CAPE is the measure of instability in the atmosphere. This image is valid in between the hours of 3PM - 6PM CDT. As You guys can see according to this model the CAPE is the strongest over the West 1/2 of Arkansas. After 6pm the area of instability just shrinks and fades away. So, It sees to me that if there is any Tornadic Storms, it will be in this area of the State.
This Map is courtesy of the National Weather Service in North Little Rock, Arkansas. Great job at depicting what the threats are, and where. I coincide with this, the Largest threat is for Strong Damaging Straight lined winds. Tornadoes are possible along the Squall Line itself. So as this line enters the State I will be watching it for rotation. The further East this gets into Central Arkansas the weaker it will get with the loss of daytime heating!

If ANYBODY has any questions at all regarding today's possibility for Severe Weather Anywhere, plz comment, shoot me a message, etc.! Be SURE to Tune in here to the Blog TOMORROW October 10th for an Official In-depth Arkansas Fall Weather Forecast! I think it will be entertaining! Have a Safe day everybody!

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