Bipolar Arkansas Weather: Watching The GFS

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      Happy New Years Everybody!!! The Weather Blog had been on a very long hiatus, but we are back in the full swing of things! So I've been watching the GFS over the past few days, and the GFS is adamant about wrap around moisture on the back side of this next front coming in changing over as this exists the state. I haven't been buying it too much because the GFS is one of the most inconsistent models outside of that 24 hour window on anything frozen. Now one thing both the GFS and EURO agree on is the possibility for SEVERE WEATHER! Now Severe Weather this early in the year is not unheard of, and it's not uncommon. So there's that.
     As far as timing, the rain itself will show up as early as Thursday Morning. Scattered Showers will persist throughout the day Thursday and into Friday. More Scattered Showers Thursday Night. A Second Band of Moisture will setup late Friday Morning into Friday afternoon, the Severe Weather comes into play Friday Evening into Saturday. The GFS shows a Lone of Strong to Severe Thunderstorms moving from left to right across the state. Both the EURO and the GFS agree on Friday Evening being the time where the greatest potential is for Severe Weather. Now the ERUO isn't as aggressive with any wintery weather as the GFS is, take a look.
This is the ERUO (European Weather Model) at 6pm Friday Evening. Very aggressive with the Strong to Severe Storms funneling in from the Southwest. 
This is the ERUO, very Conservative about any frozen precipitation on the backside of this.
This is the GFS (Global Forecasting System) same timeframe Friday Evening. GFS has this more Jelled into a line than the ERUO does. But both models show the same thing
The GFS is abit more aggressive about snow on the backside of this system Saturday Morning. 

Regardless of whether the GFS is right or not, there will be a lot of rainfall with this system, and the chance for Severe Weather will be mostly for strong winds, and hail. I don't think we'll get too many Tornadoes if any. 

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