DEVELOPING: Winter Weather Update 1/15/2018

        GoodMorning Everybody!!!  Yesterday morning I gave a weather update, regarding a developing weather system bringing us our next chance of snow this week. Well new model guidance has come in, so now I have a cleaner picture of what will happen, and some possible accumulations. Let's jump to this!
      Now, What to expect? Well let me start by saying first off, I DO NOT EXPECT A SNOW STORM...... I don't expect in no way, shape, or form a widespread snow storm, or blizzard. This will be a frontal disturbance that will bring a limited amount a moisture with it. Yes, this will be enough to give us problems, but not enough to call it a "Storm". So now that we got that squared away, how much snow are we looking at?  Well this particular front comes from the north, and typically we don't get much out of systems like this, but I have some solid totals out of the models. See Pictures below:

Now this is the 06z run of the GFS (Global Forecasting System) it shows a area across South Arkansas that gets Snow on Tuesday Morning. This is showing from an inch, to 2 inches in spots. (THAT LOCATION WILL VERY, MORE ON THAT IN A SEC) 

Now this is the NAM (North American Model) this is valid Tuesday morning early, and it shows a more scattered area of accumulations but generally the southern 1/2 of Arkansas. 

      Now we know about how much, but who will get what? And Where? Well due to the temperature profiles and the atmospheric dynamics this looks to be ALL SNOW, no Ice, or sleet that I expect at this time. Now as far as Where; well the NAM had this Setting up in Central Arkansas a couple of hours after Midnight on Tuesday Morning. But I have reason to believe that Snow showers may break out in Central Arkansas as early as 10pm Tonight!  Now Central Arkansas from just south of I-40 on South, basically that south 1/2 of Arkansas will see some good stuff. Little Rock is set to get around a Dusting to an Inch at the ONSET of all of this. The Snow Showers will be LIGHT - MODERATE (within the snow band), but the snow flakes should be heavy and dry, so the snow should be powdery which will help it accumulate quicker.... At the Onset of this I expect 1"- 1.5" of snow in Spots in Central Arkansas. As the Snow band moves on South towards South Central Arkansas (Hot Springs,  Arkadelphia,  Fordyce, Camden, Warren)  I expect a Solid 1.5" - 2" of Snow EASY! This band will move Moderately Fast so Everybody South of I-40 and West of Pine Bluff should get a chance at Some Good Stuff. See Pic Below for an Idea:

This is the Precip map of the GFS, notice where the GFS places the Snow, south 1/2 of Arkansas. Notice also, coverage is very light, but however within the Snow band itself there could be moderate burst of snow which may or may not increase the accumulations.  Cold air will NOT be an issue, it will be below freezing all night after sundown. 

If you asked me, there will be MULTIPLE SCHOOL CLOSINGS AND DELAYS on Tuesday Morning in areas of Arkansas from Little Rock on South!!!  If you're essential staff, PLEASE EXERCISE CAUTION, NO JOB IS WORTH YOUR LIFE, TAKE IT SLOW......  If you're not essential staff, PLEASE CALL IN, YOU CANNOT DRIVE, AND YOU KNOW YOU CAN'T. Again, no job is worth your life! There has been multiple Advisories, Warnings, and Watches issued in the state ahead of this storm, YOU'VE BEEN WARNED. Thanks For coming to the Blog, will be back later with any updates! Have a GoodMorning everybody! 

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