FIRST ***SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE*** OF 2018 !!!

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     Hey everybody, how's it Going! This has been a very rainy week here for the entire state! We've REALLY needed the rain coming out of a fairly dry Fall, and mostly dry Winter to be honest. BUT, what we didn't need was all that rain at ONCE. So now, we have a serious Flash Flooding issue, this is SO serious to the point to where a School District here in Central Arkansas has cancelled classes for the remainder of the week just due to county roads along the bus routes being completely flooded out! This comes after a school bus and it's occupants had to be rescued because the school bus lost the road while traveling through flood waters. So since then the entire district has cancelled classes. You know the problem is LEGIT when the School District takes a Weather Day when it's not even Winter Weather Related! This nuisance rain comes from a front that moved in earlier in the week, stalled out to the south, and has allowed disturbance after disturbance to ride up along it bringing downpour after downpour of torrential rain all over the state, most heavily across areas of Central Arkansas that has seen some of the highest totals as far as I know right now.
     How Long will this continue? Well as far as I can see, at least for the next 2 days! Today (Friday, February 23rd) will be no different then the last 3. It might slack off later this morning, but this afternoon another moderate to heavy band of torrential rain will setup along the I-30 Corridor and on up 67/167 through Arkansas and just dump additional inches of rain on top of rain that's already fallen, which will make Flash Flooding even WORSE of an issue. See Pic Below:
This is the Latest run of the NAM (North American Model), and it's currently showing exactly what I said above. Late this morning into this afternoon another band of moderate to heavy rain will setup, making Flash Flooding more a dangerous issue than it already is. 

     What's up with Severe Weather On Saturday? Well a Front will move through to put an end to this Deluge of rain. But with that front there will be the chance for some Strong to even Severe Thunderstorms. Now let me paint this picture for you guys! This Front will come through Saturday Afternoon into Saturday Evening. There is a SUBSTANTIAL THREAT for Widespread Severe Weather in parts of Central and Southeast Arkansas. Now at this time the parameters are there for developed and organized Thunderstorms that will pose a threat for High Damaging Straight Lined Winds, and Tornadoes. This is our first Legit Severe Weather Threat of 2018. Now I have UTTER CONFIDENCE that a Tornado Watch will be issued for Central Arkansas as well as parts of Southeast Arkansas at some point Saturday Afternoon. If Tornadoes move towards your house or location get to the lowest part of your home, into an interior closet or bathroom into a fetal position, and ride it out. If you're caught in your car, get out of it into a fetal position in a ditch. Even when a Severe Thunderstorm Warning is Issued, the damage can rival that of a Tornado so the same precautions should be taken for sure! See Pictures Below: 
This is Courtesy of the Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma, they have issue an "Enhanced Risk" for Severe Weather. Basically what that means is there is an enhanced area of concern within a general area of concern. Most of the state is has a risk, but the enhanced area has more of a risk then anywhere else! That basically means there will be bad weather for sure! 
This is Courtesy of The National Weather Service in North Little Rock. What they said pretty much lines up with my predictions as well. If any stroms out ahead of the main front can get organized they will pose a threat for Severe Weather and Tornadoes. As well as along the line itself, any "Kinks" (areas of rotation that develope within the leading edge of Squall Lines), develope they will pose a very prominent Tornado Threat along the Squall Line (Line of Strong to Severe Thunderstorms that form along the leading edge of cold fronts), itself. 

Thanks for Coming here to the Arkansas Weather Hawks Blog I strongly urge everyone to stay dialed into my social media plugs for any serious severe weather updates. 

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