More Severe Weather? Or Nah? My Thoughts?

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     Hey Good Evening everybody! How's it going?  I hope everybody is safe and well after Saturday's storms! I know there was 1 death in far North Arkansas in Clay county along the Missouri border. That death was during 1 of 2 Tornadoes reported on Saturday during that Severe weather event. Arkansas is in the top 5 of the states in the south with the most Tornado related fatalities! Now this statistic doesn't come as much of a surprise to me because I know that people here in Arkansas don't take weather seriously. Severe Weather and Tornadoes are a big joke to a lot of stubborn people here in Arkansas, and that's mainly due to the lack of education on how dangerous these storms can be, and/or the lack of preparation. When Severe Thunderstorm Warnings or Tornado Warnings go out for your area, IT IS REAL...This stuff is not a game, it's not a joke, I don't do these updates to stay in shape, I do it because it's SERIOUS, and these updates contain information that can potentially save your life! SO TAKE IT SERIOUS. Okay, rant over, on to tomorrow!
     So, what's going to happen?.....Well  first off, we're going to get rain, A LOT of Rain...I'm looking at another 2-3" around central Arkansas, areas out east can see as much as 4+ inches of rain! And, we ALL know by now what type of flooding issues we're having across the state due to excessive rainfall over the last week or so. So this weather maker tonight, and tomorrow will only make matters worse than what they already are! As far as Severe Weather is concerned, the NAM (North American Model), and the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) models are hitting on Surface based CAPE(Convective Available Potential Energy), which is basically the measure of instability in the atmosphere. Both the models are picking up on CAPE out in southeast Arkansas, and some in Central, and South Arkansas. But the measure of CAPE is not high, certainly not as high and concentrated as it was Saturday. So, that that being said, I don't think we have as high of a tornado threat. So Tornadoes are not very likely, some CAPE does exist, but not a lot, so tornadoes are possible, but not likely! But however, the chance is there for some storms to be strong to severe as the line moves through from left to right across the state. I will not rule out a tornado, it's not out of the question, but the main issue here is WIND (Which can be just as dangerous), and more Flooding rainfall.
This Image is courtesy of the National Weather Service, this depicts everything I've said as far as the flooding situation. This is a serious situation, and flood waters are DEADLY to tempt, so if you see standing water STAY AWAY FROM IT, go around, or just forget it! But do not "Send It" into some flood waters, that will not be good for you! If your house is flooded, or at risk, get away, stay away until the water go down!.
Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issued this Slight Risk for Severe Weather due to the fact that there is a possibility for some of those storms associated with that front to be Strong to Severe. Once again, the main threats here to worry about is high potentially damaging thunderstorm winds, and flooding rainfall. The threat for Tornadoes is there, but unlikely.

It is possible for a Tornado Watch to go out tomorrow for parts of Central and Southern Arkansas, just in case, because you never know. But my main concern is rain and wind. I do however anticipate severe thunderstorm warnings on some of those storms, so be mindful of that. On my last two updates as of now I have 900k Views on one, and just under a million views on the other. I REALLY Appreciate you guys for reading, and sharing this update, the support means a lot to me, and I'm proud to provide a service to people.! Thanks for coming here to the Arkansas Weather Hawk's Blog!

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