The Arkansas Weather Hawk's Blog

        Hey Everybody, good Afternoon. This update is to make Everybody aware of an increasing threat of Severe Weather across the State tomorrow morning, and Afternoon. It is Spring time in Arkansas, we all know about Tornadoes, how fast they happen, and how bad things can get. Weather around here can go Mild to Wild Reach quick. Springbreak is over, which means school is back in session, I think School Admins, Kids, and Teachers in Central, and East Arkansas need to be on Standby tomorrow morning from about 9am throughout the rest of the day for bad weather.          So the Main Threats is Wind, and Isolated Tornadoes. Problem is this is a LOT of wind energy with this system, so with that always brings an elevated threat for Tornadoes. This is a New Risk map from the National Weather Service in North Little Rock. There is an Enhanced Threat for Severe Weather for the East 1/2 of Arkansas, this does include the Little Rock Metropolitan and a...

              Hey everybody, how's it going! Last update was about Winter Weather. Now let's talk about a chance for Severe Weather. I have a feeling that pretty soon, we'll be talking about Winter Weather again. Winter, Spring, Winter in the Same Month...... THIS IS HOW YOU ARKANSAS!        Our chance for Severe Weather is Wednesday (Tomorrow), and Thursday. At this point as far as Timing, the weather models are hinting at Overnight Wednesday and into Thursday morning. Thursday morning is looking like the more probable timing for any severe weather we have. There is a possibility for some scattered spinup tornadoes at this point. This is the National Weather Service map for Wednesday Night. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma, has issued a Slight Risk Severe Weather for the West 1/2 of the State. This threat will transition east into Thursday Morning.  This is the Severe Weather Risk into Thursday Morning as the Sev...

      GoodMorning Everybody, how's it going! Today is Wednesday February 2nd, 2022. I did a weather update yesterday morning about an incoming High Impact Winter Storm that we have moving into the State of Arkansas. Over the past 24 hours we've gotten new model guidance on this storm and it's possible impacts to the State of Arkansas, and what's expected to setup, and where, and how much. There hasn't been many changes, but there has been a few.       Okay so between yesterday, and today the changes as far as model guidance goes, the European Weather Model has now started to line up with the GFS (Global Forecasting System), and the NAM (North American Model). We're starting to get lot's of model consistency as far as the Models showing the same thing from Run to Run. The NAM is warmer than the GFS, Meaning the NAM is holding off the Below freezing Temperatures until Thursday morning, which if THAT verify, then we wouldn't have as much Freezing Rain as ex...

      Hey Everybody, how you doing!? Today it is Tuesday, February 1rst, 2022 at 11am in the morning. Since January 28th Weather Forecasters across the country have had their eyes on a Winter storm in the making. Now the Weather Forecast have flip flopped more than the president. But as of Yesterday we're starting to get some model consistency painting a more clear picture of how this stuff will play out, and I must say, it doesn't look good at all.       So of course it was Warm across Arkansas Monday the 31rst, and will be warm through today, and most of tomorrow. With temperatures being that warm, the ground my retain most of that heat, and this will cause the frozen precipitation to not stick on most roadways with the exception of bridges and overpasses. This is my initial thoughts. But this changes after the temperatures drop down to 28° which is what these models are projecting. When the OUTSIDE AIR TEMPERATURES get down that low, everything starts to...

       Hey Everybody, My name is Omarrian Wilson. Professionally, I'm known as "The Arkansas Weather Hawk." I've been Chasing Tornadoes for Many years, I've been forecasting the Weather since Highschool. Weather Forecasting is a Very complex set of procedures, and the art of forecasting severe weather to any degree of accuracy requires distinct knowledge of weather statistics, atmospheric dynamics, and a unique interpretation of what it is you're looking at when you look at weather maps, and graphics, and weather data collectively. In this article, I will breakdown what goes into a weather forecast, and how Meteorologist can predict historic weather outbreaks like the outbreak of December 10th, 2021.        So, a basic forecast of any weather anomaly (Event), will start with a look, or a breakdown of a weather model, or a set of weather models. The National Weather Service release Weather Balloons into the atmosphere several times each day, in mul...

        Hey Everybody, Good Afternoon on this Lovely Saturday! It definitely feels great out there, it was a really nice Morning here in Little Rock. But unfortunately that Nice Weather will give way to some pretty mean storms that are expected to develop over the Next Several hours here across the State. Let's talk about it. So Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma has pushed the "Enhanced Risk" for Severe Weather further to the West to Include Central Sections of the State. This is an update from last night, which just included East Arkansas near the Mississippi Delta. Now the Mississippi Delta, and Points further to the West are Included. This does involve Little Rock, and most Surrounding Areas. Now it's worth Noting here that the Main Threats to look for will definitely be Damaging Straight Lined Winds, and Large Hail, but there is a Tornado Threat. The Tornado Threat is Fairly Low, but it's present due to the amount of Wind Energy associated with this S...

        Hey Everybody how's it going!? I hope everybody is safe, enjoying this beautiful spring weather. Speaking of the Weather, we have more severe weather coming in. There is a Chance for more Severe Weather Saturday Night in the State associated with a Front moving through, there will be a lot of wind energy associated with this front. This system won't have a particularly high amount of Instability with it, but it will be a lot of Wind Shear (The Turning of Wind with Height). So even in a Night-time environment, Storms will still have the ability to develop and rapidly become severe.  Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma, has already issued a Slight Risk area for majority of the State with an Enhanced Risk for East Arkansas. An Enhanced Risk is an area of heightened concern within a general area.         The Main Threats here are Wind, and Hail, the Risk for Tornadoes is Definitely there, but I don't expect a Major Outbreak of...