Lover's Day Winter Weather

     Happy Saturday Evening everybody! I hope everybody has had a safe day thus far. Last Update I did, I informed you all of some winter weather moving in, now I said NOTHING was set in stone. Sees to me, that Central Arkansas has LESS to No chance for frozen stuff. Looks to me like the air will be too warm, and the ground would be too warm for anything to stick anyways. Now North Arkansas on the other hand, you guys have the chance to se some measurable ice/sleet accumulations locally.  This system will be tanking south bringing cold air with it. But the air doesn't have enough downward momentum to fight over the mountains of North Arkansas. So North Arkansas will act as a shield from the good stuff. Now with the amount of precipitation that will be on the move, North Arkansas can see a dusting to 1.5inches of sleet/frz rain. When I say North Arkansas I mean Fort Smith, to Fayetteville, to Mt Home, to Jonesboro, as far south as Clinton ( MAYBE JUST MAYBE), as far south as Newport,  as far south as Augusta. Everywhere south of that North 1/2 of the state is just plain jain rain!

This picture is courtesy of The National Weather Service In North Little Rock, as you can see they share the same thinking on this as I do. Keeping everything North of Central Arkansas and everything south of Searcy, Rain. I completely agree with this forecast because if you look at the models, this is the trend between all of them. Check it out. 

This is the GFS (Global Forecasting System) it keeps it LIGHT, and Up North. It will be frozen further south than this. Weather Models always undercut the depth of Cold Air, so don't pay attention to the location of the frozen stuff. 

Here's the NAM (North American Model), this is valid between Noon and Sunday evening.  The NAM is a little more precise on the Location of where the frozen stuff will be. Sleet/Ice up North, as this sinks south everything changes to Plain 

Jain Rain for us. 

Here's the CMC (Canadian Weather Model) is a little more aggressive with the intensity of the precipitation, but it's still saying what the rest are saying NORTH ARKANSAS. The Canadian also sinks it further south which gives areas like Newport, Bald Knob, Augusta, Jonesboro stuff like that in North Central Arkansas a chance for Sleet/Frz Rain.  

As You can see there's a Winter Weather Advisory in effect for the North 1/3rd of the State due to the anticipation of inclement weather moving in on Sunday February 14th. I have a feeling this will be extended a little further to the south, later tonight and into tomorrow. 

You see how all the Weather Models are Lined up with one general prediction, and they're consistent on it too. So I have good confidence in saying this is likely what will go down. As far as timing, Sunday Afternoon, into Sunday Night. Changeover to Rain overnight Sunday and into Monday for areas further to the south than North Central Arkansas. I'll keep you guys updated on any chances in the coming model runs. Thanks for coming here to the Weather Hawk's Blog!!! Have a Good Evening Ladies and Gentlemen!! 

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