Winter's Not Dead Yet!
GoodEvening everybody, how's it going! I've been listening to everybody ask me if winter is dead or not. Here's my take on it. Winter is not completely "Dead" yet. Our winters don't typically kick in until late February and into March. If you remember back to Winter 2014/2015, we really didn't get much in the way of Snow until March of 2015. We got two good Snow Storms and one of them was a Blizzard. So just because we've only had one good snow doesn't mean winter is completely just done... Furthermore, just because we've had mild temperatures here in Arkansas in winter time doesn't mean winter is completely done either. Just means our weather is very bipolar, and it hears voices. Now my pessimism doesn't come from the warm temperatures, it comes from something I call "The Urban Island Heating Effect" I'll do an update explaining what that is, but basically in a nutshell it is a condition that traps heat in the ground. So with that playing a part in our weather, coupled with the fact that we haven't had any major cool downs to really just cool the ground off, I don't think we'll get any real measurable snow until that happens. Whether that will happen again is anybody's guess, maybe, maybe not. So that brings me to Tomorrow Night and Into Wednesday!
All Three of the Weather Models that I watch brings rain associated with a Low Pressure system in during the Evening and Nighttime hours on tomorrow, and it lasting into Wednesday. With this system brings moisture from the south, and quite a bit of it, there is a chance of picking up some decent rainfall totals from tomorrow night through Wednesday Afternoon. But on the backside of this system is some cold air funneling in from the North. So there is the chance of Rain Changing over to Snow on the Backside of this system as it moves off to the East. Now just how much, and just where is still debatable. See pictures below.
All Three of the Weather Models that I watch brings rain associated with a Low Pressure system in during the Evening and Nighttime hours on tomorrow, and it lasting into Wednesday. With this system brings moisture from the south, and quite a bit of it, there is a chance of picking up some decent rainfall totals from tomorrow night through Wednesday Afternoon. But on the backside of this system is some cold air funneling in from the North. So there is the chance of Rain Changing over to Snow on the Backside of this system as it moves off to the East. Now just how much, and just where is still debatable. See pictures below.
Here's a screenshot courtesy of The National Weather Service, of the expected Rainfall totals from this system through Thursday morning. Decent rainfall totals. We've been dry lately with high wildfire dangers and such, so this quick 3" will help out a lot.
Here's the NAM (North American Model) by Wednesday Morning. It shows the rain changing to snow on the backside of this system in West Central Arkansas, and of course North Arkansas.
And here's what's in question with Central Arkansas, see I have NO DOUBT that the air will be cold enough in North Arkansas, and West Central Arkansas for a Changeover to All Snow... But here in Central Arkansas, it's all about AIR TEMPERATURE! Could the rain changeover to Snow? Maybe, if the air gets cold enough at the Surface. I have my doubts about that happening due to just ground temperature alone. NOW, what could, and probably might happen is Snow Mixing In with some of that Rain. Thats what I tend to think will happen. NOTHING is sticking here in Central Arkansas, sorry kids! Forget about it. Now North Arkansas, yeah you will get accumulations, how much? I don't know just yet.
Now here's the GFS (Global Forecasting System) on Wednesday Morning. The GFS is warmer, the GFS only shows a changeover in North Arkansas. But it just may be undercutting the density of the cold air, which is what weather models are prone to doing. I do think the Changeover will be further south than that, but in the GFS's defense, I don't think we will see much of a changeover this (Little Rock) far south.
Here's the GFS later Wednesday Morning, it shows the changeover to Snow for North Arkansas as this all lifts out of here. Now like I said, I do think there will be a changeover further to the south than North Arkansas.
The CMC ( Canadian Weather Model) looks almost just like the GFS it's warmer as well. So here we have the NAM which is the only weather model that I actually study, that gives West Central, and Parts of Central Arkansas a chance at some snow at least. So we'll have to see if they they start to line up with each other, and which side of the tracks they line up and agree on. I'll keep you guys posted. One thing's for sure, IT WILL RAIN!!! Thanx for Coming here to the Arkansas Weather Hawk's Blog, have a GoodNight Everyone. !
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