Winter Makes A LOVELY Return!
GoodMorning Ladies and Gentlemen! Well weather has been pretty dead other than the disrespectful wind we recieved about 2 days ago. But otherwise, nothing clucking. Well Im proud to say, WINTER has decided to make a return to the Natural State, after throwing a temper tantrum and leaving us with spring weather. Winter wants to make everything up, and show us how much it loves us by coming back on Valentine's Day and taking us out to dinner! I don't know about you all, but I'm hungry, especially at this time of morning. But Anyways, I digress.
Timing is looking like at some point during the day on Valentine's Day. Now as you all know I study, or favor, or watch more, or whatever you call it 3 different weather models mostly. I do watch the EURO (European Weather Model), and the HRRR ( High Refresh Weather Model). But I don't favor them. The main 3 weather models I study are the CMC (Canadian Weather Model), NAM ( North American Model), and GFS (Global Forecasting System). Now the CMC has precipitation starting in Central Arkansas overnight Saturday, and into Sunday Morning. With the main batch of precipitation moving through later in the day. That's just according to THAT one model. The GFS still have time in 6 hour increments for that day from this far out. But the GFS shows a mixed bag of Precipitation in West Central, and West Arkansas, and North Arkansas of course. The NAM shows North Arkansas getting the frozen stuff first, then the precipitation moving more south into Central Arkansas. So that's 2/3 that gives Us (Here in Central Arkansas) a shot at frozen stuff. Check the pics below.
Timing is looking like at some point during the day on Valentine's Day. Now as you all know I study, or favor, or watch more, or whatever you call it 3 different weather models mostly. I do watch the EURO (European Weather Model), and the HRRR ( High Refresh Weather Model). But I don't favor them. The main 3 weather models I study are the CMC (Canadian Weather Model), NAM ( North American Model), and GFS (Global Forecasting System). Now the CMC has precipitation starting in Central Arkansas overnight Saturday, and into Sunday Morning. With the main batch of precipitation moving through later in the day. That's just according to THAT one model. The GFS still have time in 6 hour increments for that day from this far out. But the GFS shows a mixed bag of Precipitation in West Central, and West Arkansas, and North Arkansas of course. The NAM shows North Arkansas getting the frozen stuff first, then the precipitation moving more south into Central Arkansas. So that's 2/3 that gives Us (Here in Central Arkansas) a shot at frozen stuff. Check the pics below.
Now here's the NAM weather Model, it only goes out to Sunday evening because it's a short range model. But even at this period of the day (I'm sure IF THIS VERIFY, this would come in much earlier. Weather Models don't measure AIR too well, well Cold Air anyways), but even at this period of the day, according to this model, this run, it shows the Onset of something that COULD bring something into our neck of the woods here in Central Arkansas. THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE DAYS GO BY!
Now here's the GFS Model at the SAMETIME on Sunday as the NAM. Different story right. So it shows scattered stuff hanging out around the corners and borders of the state. In which IF temperatures are low enough, when that reaches Central Arkansas, it MAY be frozen!
Okay, now the CMC Model shows a different story all together. This Model shows precipitation Sunday Morning in West Central Arkansas as the Onset.
Now throughout the day on Sunday the CMC model has that little area of precipitation expanding as the front moves in, and starting to drift east with the front. Now by Sunday Night, the CMC has a MAXI area of Ice Over Central Arkansas. I DO NOT BUY THIS AT ALL! But if THIS WAS TO VERIFY, we would be looking at a Valentine's Day Storm....
FYI, Im not digging the CMC right Now, it's too dramatic. But I will watch the Canadian for consistency, if it runs this scenario on the next 3-4 updates, I'll give it more attention. Bottom Line, NONE OF THIS is written in stone, this WILL CHANGE a lot over the coming days, and you bet I'll be here to update you all as it does! I appreciate you all for visiting. Have a Great Day everybody!
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