*SEVERE&WINTER WEATHER UPDATE* 3/9/2017

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      Hey guys how's it going! I hope everybody's having a good night so far. Only in Arkansas do you have a full winter of basically LITTLE to NO Snowfall, then all of a sudden the Storm Season kicks in, get a few Tornadoes, a few Severe Storms, then Winter wants to make a return.... ONLY IN ARKANSAS! Just when we thought Winter was DEAD, Just when we thought it was OVER! Winter will not be denied! More on that later, first thing's first...
       Okay, so tonight there is a Slight risk for Severe Weather in the Northeast 1/2 of Arkansas. Then within that Slight Risk, there's an "Enhanced Risk" (More Concentrated Area of Concern.) Now as far as I'm concerned the risk for Tornadoes is VERY LOW! There is Far less Instability in the air then our last two Trouble makers. The MAIN THREATS I'm concerned with at this time is HAIL, and High Damaging Straight Lined Winds. Now there will be a Squall Line that will develop and pose this threat, but instead of moving Left to Right (West to East), the Line will be moving from North to South (Along with the front itself, it's a southward moving front.) The Line will develop in Southern Missouri, it will move into North Arkansas where it will be at it's strongest, hence the Slight, and Enhanced Risk for Severe Weather being that far to the north. In advance of this Severe Weather, Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma has issued a Sever Thunderstorm Watch for the entire Northeast 1/2 of Arkansas until 12am Midnight CDT.!
WW0073 Radar
This Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued for the Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma, it's valid until 12AM CDT.!


This is a Map Courtesy of the Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma, of the Risk Areas for tonight as that strong squall line takes shape. Again, the main threats are wind and hail with that line as it moves through.

Now to the Cold Wintery side of this Forecast. Now the GFS (Global Forecasting System) Forecast Model has been picking up on a "Cold Trough" (A Pocket of cold air from the Arctic's to the states.)At first I wasn't buying it, but after some more clarity, this is looking more and more like reality. We will have a system moving through with precipitation, at the exact same time this Arctic air is set to pass by Arkansas. So that set's the stage for some Wintery Precips including SNOW. This is Supposed to happen Saturday Night and into Early Sunday Morning. I'm NOT EXPECTING You to walk outside Sunday Morning and see a Huge Blanket of Snow on the ground, but I would NOT BE SURPRISED if Central and North Arkansas get a Dusting at least of snow Saturday Night into Sunday Morning.! YEAH, I know! From one Extreme to Another!
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This is the GFS Forecast Model, Valid Midnight on Sunday Morning. Changeover In North Arkansas from Rain to Sleet as the Cold Air arrives.
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This is the GFS Valid between the hours of Midnight and 6am Sunday Morning, Changeover in Central and East Arkansas as that Cold Air sinks in, and as the Precipitation comes to an end. THIS COULD VERIFY, BUT IT IS NOT SET IN STONE, IT CAN CHANGE!

Crazy right? It's Arkansas! Anyways, I appreciate you all for coming here to the Arkansas Weather Hawk's Blog!

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