**SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE** #MondayWeatherMadness
Hey everybody! How's It going! Well our last big weather maker did deliver as advertised, I think we got like 4 tornadoes that day in like two different counties. I must say right now, I GREATLY APPRECIATE EVERYBODY THAT COMES HERE TO THE WEATHER HAWK'S BLOG, And EVERYBODY that follow's me on social Media, and encourages me to keep this stuff going with predicting the weather, and tracking Storms. You guys are AMAZING and I really feel like this work that I do here on the Blog and on Social Media is worth it because people TRUST Me and My Forecast! That's freaking AWESOME! Now with that said, Let's get into Monday March 6th into Tuesday March 7th 2017!
I'm making this update at 21:51 (9:51pm), Sunday March 5th. There is yet another chance for Severe Weather for Monday (Tomorrow). This System is VERY similar to the system last week. We're looking at a threat for Strong to Severe storms, My Primary concerns will be Hail (LARGE HAIL), Damaging Thunderstorm Winds associated with the front itself, and there is a Tornado Threat that will be associated with any storms that decide to form out AHEAD of the front itself, those storms will have to be closely monitored because they stand more of a chance for organization. The main threat for winds will be as that Squall Line pushes through with the front itself. A "Squall Line" is a Line of Strong to Severe Thunderstorms that moves from Left to Right (West to East) across the state at a faster speed than most storms, they typically come with a very strong front of winds moving East with the system that can cause massive Straight Lined Wind Damage. There is somewhat of a Tornado threat with the Squall Line in areas that has had prolonged periods of sunshine, or areas that hadn't had rain, the air is still unstable in those areas and spin up tornadoes can form out of Squall Lines. But the highest threat of Tornadoes will be with Isolated Storms that get themselves organized within the Unstable area.
I'm making this update at 21:51 (9:51pm), Sunday March 5th. There is yet another chance for Severe Weather for Monday (Tomorrow). This System is VERY similar to the system last week. We're looking at a threat for Strong to Severe storms, My Primary concerns will be Hail (LARGE HAIL), Damaging Thunderstorm Winds associated with the front itself, and there is a Tornado Threat that will be associated with any storms that decide to form out AHEAD of the front itself, those storms will have to be closely monitored because they stand more of a chance for organization. The main threat for winds will be as that Squall Line pushes through with the front itself. A "Squall Line" is a Line of Strong to Severe Thunderstorms that moves from Left to Right (West to East) across the state at a faster speed than most storms, they typically come with a very strong front of winds moving East with the system that can cause massive Straight Lined Wind Damage. There is somewhat of a Tornado threat with the Squall Line in areas that has had prolonged periods of sunshine, or areas that hadn't had rain, the air is still unstable in those areas and spin up tornadoes can form out of Squall Lines. But the highest threat of Tornadoes will be with Isolated Storms that get themselves organized within the Unstable area.
This Map is Courtesy of the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma. They have outlined an area of the state under an "Enhanced Risk" for Severe Weather. Basically what that means is the area under the Enhanced risk will be monitored much closer than the rest, because the Threats for Severe Weather are ESPECIALLY Prominent there. SPC Has West, and Northwest Arkansas Outlined under an Enhanced Risk for Monday Evening.
These Graphics here are Courtesy of The National Weather Service here in North Little Rock, Arkansas. They have broken down the "Enhanced Risk" for Severe Weather into a more Statewide map so you can see what cities and areas are included. Again threats are Wind, Hail, and the Chance of Isolated Tornadoes with certain storms.
As Far as Timing goes, well the Time to expect storm initiation would be Tomorrow Afternoon, and Evening in West Arkansas. That would be the time I'd be most worried about Tornadoes, in the evening and early nighttime hours. The Storms will start to move into Central Arkansas at some point tomorrow night and overnight, they will move into East Arkansas and be gone by Tuesday Morning. The MAIN Areas to watch for Tornadoes, West, Northwest, and parts of Central Arkansas as those storms move East. I FULLY EXPECT A TORNADO WATCH TO BE ISSUED AT SOME POINT TOMORROW EVENING AS STORMS START TO GET GOING IN WEST ARKANSAS. Expect a Tornado Watch for West, Northwest, AND Parts of Central Arkansas.!
I will do another Weather Update in the morning, on any changes of models, threats, risks, or my expectations! Thanks for coming here to the Weather Hawk's Blog!
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