2018 Turkey Day Forecast!!

       Hey everybody, how's it going! I've been pouring over the model guidance over the past few days surrounding, our weather for Thanksgiving day, and Black Friday. The models have been fairly consistent with temperatures, as well as any rain chances. So Let's get right to it.
      Now as far as temperatures on Thanksgiving Day, the temperatures look to be in the Low to Mid 40s around the state on Wednesday night heading into thanksgiving morning. So for everybody that will be camping out for the Thanksgiving Black Friday Sales, it will be chilly the morning of thanksgiving. On thanksgiving day the temperatures should warm up into the Low to Mid 50s in most areas of the state. 50s isn't unbearably cold, but it's chilly, so dress accordingly. The night of thanksgiving the temperatures will dip back down into the Mid 40s heading into Friday. Then by Friday evening I'm seeing mid 50s again. On Saturday the GFS (Global Forecasting System) has a high of 62 degrees here in Central Arkansas, then a high of 50 degrees on Sunday, then Sunday night into Monday we could possibly dip down into the deep 30s. So this temperature weather pattern is shaping up to look a little bit more like wintertime at least over the next 7 days, with the exception of Saturday. So if you have plans, as it sits at the moment I'd make them for Saturday, because that's the only day at the moment, that I can see it being actually pleasant.

 This is the GFS weather model valid overnight Wednesday and into Midnight on Thanksgiving Morning.

This is the GFS by 6am Thanksgiving Morning. As you can see, it will be Chilly!

This is the GFS by Noon on Thanksgiving Day, it will be warmer than the night before but still chilly. The weather will feel like November outside, so dress accordingly.

This is the GFS by 6am Friday Morning, as you can see it will be chilly, warming up into the mid 50s by mid-day on Friday.

       Between now, and Thanksgiving I do not expect any widespread outbreaks of rain, or precipitation. I do expect scattered showers tomorrow in South Arkansas. Otherwise, I don't expect any rain from now through Thanksgiving. Now on Friday the GFS has been consistent with a chance of rain, at first it will bringing the rain through associated with a weak front, but now the GFS has backed off with the rain in Central Arkansas, and picks it up in East Arkansas late Friday afternoon and evening. Either way there is a chance for rain on Friday Afternoon.

This is the GFS on Friday afternoon, and it intensifies the rain as it's on the move out of here Friday Evening. But however, I do think this will be more widespread on Friday Afternoon as this Front moves through. No Severe, or Winter Weather expected.


The cold air will return by the beginning of next week, any chances of Wintery Weather are unclear at the moment. As you guys know, I will be monitoring the weather over the next several days, so if anything changes, I'll be the first to report it! Thanks' for coming here to The Arkansas Weather Hawk's Blog, have a GoodNight Everybody!


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