WINTER WEATHER UPDATE: NOVFREEZE 2018!

-
      Hey everybody, I hope you guys are having a fantastic night so far. Yes, you read the title right! It is the Official "Novfreeze" of 2018. Calm before the freeze! We have a chance at our first freeze of the year, and when I say "FREEZE" that's what I mean. I'm about to go over how cold? What time? And Will there be anything extra? Check me out!
      Okay, so as far as the first question, how cold...... The models have been consistent over the past few days for subfreezing air, I was supposed to do this update yesterday, but I started seeing changes, so I decided to wait a little while longer. Good thing that I did, because just 6 runs ago, the GFS (Global Forecasting System) Weather Model was very aggressive with an opportunity for some frozen precips, but we'll get into that in a second. But as far as how cold? Well the models have been very consistent with high 20s in Central Arkansas on Saturday Morning. Mid-Low 20s up North. Check it out.
This is the 6pm run of the NAM (North American Model) this is valid between the hours of 3 and 6am Saturday Morning. High 20s Central, Mid 20s West, and probably Low 20s North. COLD!!!! NAM has it warming up to the 40s on Saturday during the day. Now, Sunday it's cold but not COLD COLD.
Now the temperatures will be at or near freezing on Saturday, and Sunday Night. But our next COLD COLD snap doesn't arrive until a front moves in on Monday Afternoon, Evening, and Night. This Image is the GFS Weather model, this is valid in between the hours of Midnight Tuesday morning, and 6am Tuesday morning. Same Bat-time, same Bat-channel, High 20s in Central, Mid 20s in West, and Low 20s up North. These are the first Offical Cold Snaps of the season, we've been cold, but not sub-freezing. So these systems are it!
Now in recent runs the GFS has been aggressive with the precipitation, at one point showing frozen stuff in Central Arkansas, that's what caught my attention days ago. But it has backed down on the precips over the past few runs, and now it's showing a chance for frozen precipitation of some type over West Central Arkansas. As it has over the past few runs, this can continue to change. Tomorrow it may not show anything at all. But this is at least a CHANCE at this point and time, with this 1 model, on this 1 run, of something frozen in the state, we'll see!!

So in recap, it will be raining tomorrow morning (Friday Novermeber 9th, 2018) somewhere in the state, should clear tomorrow evening, and turn cold tomorrow night, in which it will remain, until Tuesday. Come Monday, rain comes back to the forecast with chances of frozen precipitation SOMEWHERE in the state by Monday Evening, turning back cold! Temperatures will then rebound for a dry Tuesday.! This is the forecast for now, I will update as this changes, Thanks for coming here to The Arkansas Weather Hawk's Blog, have a great night everybody!

Follow Me On Social Media:
@Omarrian Wilson - Facebook
@OmarrWilson - Twitter
@The Arkansas Weather Hawk - Google Plus
@thearkansas_weatherhawk - Instagram

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE: 4/03/19 Thursday Thunder

-
Image
     Hey everybody, I hope everybody is having a Fantastic night so far, and I hope everybody is safe. Over the last week, I've been watching a Storm System moving through tomorrow afternoon. The Main threats will be Limited Due to the timing of day, and the level of severity will be limited due to the lack of Instability. See Below.      This is a map courtesy of the National Weather Service in North Little Rock, as you can see here the Primary Threats will be Large Hail, and Damaging Thunderstorm Winds. Tornadoes cannot be ruled out, but are not likely.  This will not be a widespread severe weather outbreak. Mainly because this will come as two waves of moisture. The first wave of showers and storms will move through early in the morning on Thursday, SOME MAY BE STRONG. So for those getting up for work, and school, be aware of this. That first Initial wave will move through and leave lingering rain behind. This will cause cooling, and stabilize the atmosphere to keep Severe
Read more

First Weather Update of 2016 !!!!!!

-
Image
     Heyy Everybody GoodMorning, and How's it Going!! Thanks for coming here to the Weather Hawk's Blog for the first blog post update of the new year! I'm doing this update to inform you guys of our first rain chances of the new year! First for two things aye! Well first thing's first, I'd Like to THANK EVERYBODY for your Happy Birthday Wishes back on my Birthday (New Year's Eve), makes me feel Loved, Thank You everybody. I'd also like to wish EVERYBODY a Happy New Year! I hope and pray that you all had a safe, and enjoyable New Year regardless of what you did for new years. 2015 flew by, it's now officially 2016. So let's get down to bidness shall we?     So as far as our next rain chances goes, our next rain chance comes in during the Second half of our work week this week. All of you know I generally study 3 different weather models that I tend to find most accurate for my predictions on what I think is going to happen. The GFS (Global Forecasti
Read more

Overnight Storms

-
Image
     Hey everybody, how's it going! I hope you guys are having a good day so far. I know I haven't done any weather updates recently, haven't had much going on weather wise, and I'm in the middle of a busy work week, so I just haven't had time to do anything. But I'm making time today, because we have a storm system coming in overnight tonight, and into tomorrow morning. So lets take a dive into it aye.     As far as Timing goes, It's looking like Late this Evening in Oklahoma, Later tonight in West Arkansas, and moving left to right across the state during the Overnight Hours. So for Central Arkansas 12-2AM would be a good bet, and East Arkansas 2-7AM would be a good bet.     As far as what the threats are, well mainly due solely to the timing of the night this will move in, the MAIN threats are Hail, and Damaging Straight Line Winds. At First this was expected to move in during the Evening hours, and that raised some Tornado Concern among Meteorologist,
Read more