SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE: For Monday November 5th

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       Hey everybody, I hope you guys are having a fantastic evening so far. In my last Update I discussed the severe weather chances for tomorrow, November 5th. Now, a few Model runs later I have some updated impressions I need you guys to be aware of.
        Okay, as far as Timing, I stated that it wasn't really clear yesterday what time this stuff is expected to kick off. Now that I have a more clear picture, I'm expecting development to start in North Central Arkansas from the wave of moisture passing to the north sometime late tomorrow morning, into the Afternoon hours. By Afternoon tomorrow I'm expecting showers, and possibly some storms to develop around Central, and South Central Arkansas. I don't expect much of that to be Severe. Now as we get deeper into the Afternoon, and Evening hours tomorrow, from 12-6pm, I expect a Squall Line to develop as it moves into East Arkansas. I expect everything to be gone by 8 or 9pm (Severe Weather anyways).
        Now as far as What to Expect? Well as I stated above, I do not expect widespread Severe Weather in Central Arkansas early in the day, instability isn't there. As everything moves into East Arkansas during the evening tomorrow the chance for severe weather increases with the presence of that squall line. Tornadoes are possible, but not greatly expected. I cannot rule out the chance for an Isolated Tornado or two in East, or Southeast Arkansas as this moves on out of here.
This Picture is Courtesy of the National Weather Service in North Little Rock. They've done a good job as always, of showing where, and what. The greatest area of concern is extreme East Arkansas, with a Slight Risk for the rest of the East 1/2 of Arkansas. The Main threat here is Damaging Winds. Tornadoes are a threat, but not Likely. 
This Picture is the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) weather model @12noon tomorrow, this is one of the models I study, it shows the onset of thunderstorm development in Central, and South Central Arkansas, as well as up North. This is just development of scattered showers and storms. Some scattered Strong Storms? Possible!!!
This is the HRRR model around 5pm tomorrow evening. As you can see by now it's gelling into a line, and moving through East Arkansas. This is the time period here of the highest threat for Strong Damaging Winds, or Spin Up Tornadoes. It should be out of here before 8pm tomorrow night.

Thanks For coming to the Arkansas Weather Hawk's Blog and trusting me to be your go to guy for information, if anybody has any questions let me know! Have a Safe Rest of Your Night everyone! 

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