The Arkansas Weather Hawk's Blog

       Hey everybody! Welcome back to the Arkansas Weather Hawk's Blog!!! Today I'm releasing my Preliminary Fall Weather Outlook for Arkansas! This is only a PRELIMINARY Forecast, meaning this is a premature, early look at just my early thoughts about this coming fall! This is not an Official Forecast, that will come later. But first, I will cover the Short Term.      Lot's of questions I've been getting is when will we have more rain? Another question, is what will the temperatures be like heading into October? Here I will answer those questions. Now, as far as rain, I've checked all 4 weather models that I study, and from what I've seen, our next substantial chance for rain will be this weekend, either Saturday, or Sunday. That chance for rain will come in the form of showers and storms associated with a disturbance that will be moving this way out of the Rockies. The NAM ( North American Model) shows a "Squall Line" (Line of Severe Thunderstorms, ...

       Hey Everybody, how's it going this Afternoon! Well I hope everybody has enjoyed the seasonally nice temperatures! This morning was in the Mid 60s, so I hope everybody enjoyed the nice temperatures!       As I said last week in my Polar Vortex Update, this nice weather wouldn't last very long, and it hasn't.! Thursday is back to business as usual with temperatures in the low to mid 90s in some spots.... We will move into, and through the weekend, as well as through the first half of next week with temperatures in the Mid 90s for highs, and Lows in the Low 80s and high 70s in spots. We will move into the Middle Part of August with highs mostly in the Mid 90s. Next Thursday is expected to be the hottest day of the next 14 day period (at this time, with this run of the models), with a projected high of 97° in Central Arkansas.  That number could change, but this is what's projected at the moment. Now moving into the Middle of August, highs are...

      Hey everybody, how's it going! This weekend there is definitely a chance for rain, there is somewhat a chance of Thunderstorms. With the cooler air forecasted this coming up work week, their will be a front associated with that air (it always set's up that way). But with the cold front coming, there will be storms along and ahead of it. That front will stall out across the state, this is what will allow the cooler temperatures to set in. But a line of storms, and a chance for severe weather comes with the front.       Okay, what am I expecting? With our weather for tomorrow, with the latest run of the models, I see a chance for Severe Weather to develop, and a chance for a Tornado or two ( THAT CHANCE IS LOW), but the chance for Tornadoes can never be ruled out! Tomorrow will be a mostly quiet day weather wise, with a chance for scattered rain up in the day. But tomorrow evening and night, I will be looking for Thun...

       Hey everybody, welcome back to the good ole Arkansas Weather Hawk's blog, where you get the inside scope on what's going on with the bipolar weather in Arkansas! I don't know if some of you have heard of it or not, but we had what's called a Polar Vortex Split. What a Polar Vortex Split is; Is when the Low Pressure Cold air in the North Pole split into two sections of Cold air, when this happens the Jet Stream, which keeps the air trapped up in the Arctic North Pole, starts to wave, and dip down into the southern regions of North America which in turn brings us colder temperatures! Usually this has a tendency to happen during the Winter, but when this happens during the summer, it seems a bit weird, and it will bring us unseasonal temperatures. THIS SUMMER, WE NEED THAT! This is what a "Polar Split" looks like. Notice how the blue eventually floats over the United States? That happens when the Jet Stream weakens, and allow high pressure to develop, ...

      Hey everybody, How's it going?! I hope everybody is safe of this Saturday evening following Saturday morning's powerful storms that rocked parts of the Natural State. I wanted to do this update, because I've gotten tons of questions from people that have confused last night's wind damage to tornado damage. This is why people die, or get hurt during dangerous weather, due to misconceptions and myths, I want to clear some of that up in this post. Let me start by saying, straight lined winds can be just as bad as tornadoes. Straight Lined Winds can meet and exceed tornado, and possibly even hurricane force winds. ANYTIME you have winds moving that fast there will be damage, we all know that. But just because there is a Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in effect, that doesn't mean yo u should take it any less serious. Sometimes when I broadcast a warning on Social Media, I will go ahead and say " Get to a Safe Place", because I know that the winds this pa...

     Hey Everybody, how's it going! I know it has been a while since I made a weather update. Mainly because we haven't had any particular weather anomalies that has prompted one. But, I'm extremely concerned about people actually knowing, or practicing heat safety. I mean really, in the wintertime you dress in layers right? Why do we do that? Because it's cold and we don't want to freeze to death. Well in the Summer, why is it difficult to wear light, and few clothes, and drink water? In the winter on a 20 degree day, we dress in layers and drink hot chocolate. but In the summer on a 100 degree day, we cut grass at 3pm in the evening and fall out in the middle of the yard..... That doesn't make any sense!! IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTSIDE YOUR HOME In the Hottest parts of the day (12 Noon - 5pm) DRESS LIGHTLY, AND CARRY/DRINK LIQUID!!!!! Simple Instructions! If you're breathing hard enough to open your mouth and breathe, then you need a break!! This is the L...

      Hey Everybody, how's it going on this Thursday night. Unfortunately a harsh reality of spring in Arkansas is Severe and potentially Deadly weather. Tomorrow is one of those days where we will definitely have some of that weather. Now this will be a very typical spring severe weather set up for Arkansas. We will have a front moving in with a certain amount of instability which will be sufficient enough for Supercell thunderstorms to develop, and rotate, and produce tornadoes. Now down to the meat and potatoes.........       What everyone wants to know is what are the risk for tomorrow.? Well at this point EVERYTHING is a risk, Wind, Hail, Tornadoes the whole 9! I think the area with the Highest chance of Severe Weather is this outlined area below: If you live ANYWHERE in that outlined area; I expect Severe Supercell Thunderstorms, I expect storms with Strong Winds, Large hail, and large violent Tornadoes ARE POSSIBLE in that outlined area! Thi...