SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE: Our Next Big Weather Maker

     Hey Good Afternoon Everybody, how's it going. I'm going to TRY to condense this weather update as much as possible while not missing out on any information that you really need to know. It's just a LOT of Stuff.
     Timing, at the moment, we are looking at chances for rain on Monday, a chance for Severe Weather throughout the afternoon-nighttime hours on Tuesday, and this stuff clearing east Arkansas by Wednesday.
     Threats, right now the MAIN threats will be Strong damaging thunderstorm winds, Esp associated with the front itself. Heavy rainfall is my greatest concern. This System will have A LOT of precipitation. When I say a lot, I do mean LOTS of rain. Flooding is a given. The possibly does exist for isolated Tornadoes, Wind Shear, and Instability values will be high in certain areas which means that should storms organize out ahead of the front, tornadoes can be a real possibility. Tornadoes can also spinup within the kinks of the line itself. I STRONGLY advise everybody to follow my social media on Tuesday Evening and Night.
     What They think,

This map is courtesy of The National Weather Service in North Little Rock. This system has the potential to drop some INCREDIBLY heavy rainfall. This system will be coming from the west but drawing in moisture from the Golf Of Mexico (The Ocean) so needless to say, there is a chance at some good rainfall totals. FLOODING is a REAL Possibility. 

Severe Weather is our next threat, this is courtesy of the National Weather Service in North Little Rock. There is a Slight Risk for Severe weather across south Arkansas from Little Rock on south. Now, I do think this will be extended eastward to include more of East central Arkansas. The Strongest Instability values will be scattered across areas of Central and South Arkansas, and East Arkansas from what I see in the weather models. 

Here's the Slight Risk Outlook courtesy of The Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma. This is valid for Tuesday November 17th. This will likely be fine tuned as we head into tomorrow. 

  Now what do I think? I think we will have more of a chance for heavy rainfall and strong winds than anything. But Tuesday the instability measures are generous throughout Central and East Arkansas, so if storms can get organized they will have the possibility of going severe, and maybe tornadic. See below. 

Here's a map of the GFS (Global Forecasting System). This is the Vertical Motion Index, it measures where the Windshear (Lift) is expected to be. As you can see, this is Valid Tuesday Morning with Scattered Shear in West Arkansas out ahead of the Front. I have no faith in that, because Instability will be low. 

Here's the GFS, same map different time. This is Tuesday Evening around 6pm, this shows Windshear ahead and along the Squall line itself. If I had a concern for tornadoes, this would be it. That timeframe, in that area, central and east Arkansas along and ahead of the front. 

Here's the GFS weather model's precipitation map, really heavy rainfall by Tuesday evening with the front itself starting in west Arkansas and moving from left to right across the state. This is where our heaviest rainfall totals will come from. 

Here's my last shot of the GFS it shows heavy rainfall associated with the squall line itself, this timeframe is valid in between 6pm Tuesday, and Midnight Wednesday Morning. Slow moving System with heavy rain. Again, this is where our biggest threat comes from, FLOODING. 

Keep in mind, rain weakens the ground. So weakened ground coupled with high winds equals trees that can collapse over easily. When you pray for rain, you gotta deal with the mud too. I REALLY appreciate all of you for coming to my blog for weather information. It means a lot! Thanx for your Support!! 

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