Wednesday Weather Worries
HAPPY VETERAN'S DAY!!!!!
GoodMorning Everybody, how's it going! Well it sees to me, that our chances for severe weather has passed us by for today. NOT COMPLETELY, because any storms that do develop in South or Northeast Arkansas will have the potential to organize and cause a wind threat, a hail threat, and possibly a low tornado threat. People I need you guys to understand something, weather forecasters are not Gods. God did NOT give us a higher power allowing us to see into the future and foresee what will happen (With the Weather), unfortunately we don't have that ability. Now based on a varied amount of interior and exterior factors our forecast models are somewhat able to give us clues as to what the future holds, weather wise, but they are not always right!!! Weather Models "Fine Tune" themselves as we get closer in time to a weather event giving us a more accurate picture of what to prepare for. Nothing more, or less. So I might see "Tornado Outbreak" material one day, and do an update based solely off of what I see, and half off of what HISTORY tells me. But a few days later, I might see just "PLAIN JANE RAIN" over time that weather model has tuned itself and corrected itself to paint me a more accurate picture. Sometimes Weather Models are RIGHT ON THE MONEY, then sometimes they are a day late and a dollar short.
GoodMorning Everybody, how's it going! Well it sees to me, that our chances for severe weather has passed us by for today. NOT COMPLETELY, because any storms that do develop in South or Northeast Arkansas will have the potential to organize and cause a wind threat, a hail threat, and possibly a low tornado threat. People I need you guys to understand something, weather forecasters are not Gods. God did NOT give us a higher power allowing us to see into the future and foresee what will happen (With the Weather), unfortunately we don't have that ability. Now based on a varied amount of interior and exterior factors our forecast models are somewhat able to give us clues as to what the future holds, weather wise, but they are not always right!!! Weather Models "Fine Tune" themselves as we get closer in time to a weather event giving us a more accurate picture of what to prepare for. Nothing more, or less. So I might see "Tornado Outbreak" material one day, and do an update based solely off of what I see, and half off of what HISTORY tells me. But a few days later, I might see just "PLAIN JANE RAIN" over time that weather model has tuned itself and corrected itself to paint me a more accurate picture. Sometimes Weather Models are RIGHT ON THE MONEY, then sometimes they are a day late and a dollar short.
Here's a forecast issued this morning via The National Weather Service in North Little Rock. The Severe weather risk is really a Narrow corridor of the state, so the risk is not widespread like I thought it would be earlier in the week.
Here's the latest Slight risk area issued by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma. They think there is lesser of a chance for Arkansas, and there's more of a chance where the Low Pressure itself is in Missouri and Iowa.
My thoughts, well we will have some severe weather as the front moves through this evening, that's a given, the main threats we are looking at here are WIND, AND POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL. Now with that being said, the chance for tornadoes is present, but it's very low. Tornadoes can NEVER be ruled out. As a Weather Forecaster you never say never. But at this point the greatest threat of tornadoes comes with ANY STORM that can get organized in South, Central, North, or East Arkansas. If a Storm get organized and start to rotate, there is nothing to stop it from developing a Tornado, that's where the threat comes from. Otherwise there is none. Timing on this is Afternoon for West and Central Arkansas, and on into the Evening and Nighttime hours for East Central, and East Arkansas. This should all be gone before midnight tonight. This is a quick mover, this rain will NOT Hang out long. I STRONGLY advise you to follow me on Social Media if you haven't already. I REALLY want to Thank Everybody for coming here to the Arkansas Weather Hawk's Blog!
HAPPY VETERAN'S DAY TO ALL THE BRAVE MEN AND WOMEN THAT FOUGHT, SERVED, AND STILL SERVE THE GREATEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD! THANK YOU!
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