The Arkansas Weather Hawk's Blog

      Hey, good evening everybody! How's it going! I've looked into the newest model guidance, and pretty much the only thing I'm unsure about at this current moment is timing, as far as when this Severe Weather is expected to setup. Now, again as I stated last night in my previous weather update, MY MAIN CONCERNS are Damaging Thunderstorm Winds, and the possibility for large damaging Hail. Those are my primary concerns at this time, Tornadoes are possible but not incredibly likely. I will go over my uncertainties below.       My main uncertainty here is timing. The NAM (North American Forecast Model) has one single Squall Line moving through Early in the day on Tuesday, and that's it! Nothing else behind it. Now, even with that scenario, we have to watch the storm cells that form out ahead of the line itself. If anything can get organized, then we have a problem. Okay now that's the NAM...... The GFS (Global Forecasting System) is sayi...

      Hey everybody, how's it going! It's been a while since my last post here on the blog. As you all know when the weather is quiet and nice, I tend to stay away from the blog. I try to only use it for the really serious stuff. So, with that being said, It's looking like we have a particularly interesting setup coming in over the next few days. A frontal boundary will move over the state tonight, and tomorrow morning, that will allow waves of low pressure to move over the state. Now, this will set the stage for some severe weather. So, let's get right into things!       Okay, so we didn't have much of a winter! THAT SUCKS! I was hoping for some good shots at some snow storms and stuff. I mean granted, OUR SCIENTIFIC Winter has not ended yet. But there's no hope in the future for snow! LOL! But it's now time for METEOROLOGIST, and the public alike to shift our focus from the DEAD Winter that we had on to Tornadoes and Severe Weather! ...

      Hey everybody, How's it going!? You know I try to make this as professional as possible, but BEING ME (Omarr Wilson) is DRAINING..... I wish y'all understood LOL!  But I digress!  FIRST WEATHER UPDATE OF 2017!!!! Starts with FUN! The WEATHER is the Developing Story right now so Let's get to it!     What's going to Happen!? ........ Okay so what we have is an Artic Trough Diving South through the Plain States, and at the same time, we have a System pulling moisture North from the Tropics. It's SIMPLE, mix Artic air with Moisture, and What do you have?  SNOW CITY.     What does the Models Say?.......  Lets start with the GFS (Global Forecasting System). This is a Screenshot of the GFS Early Tomorrow Morning, you see precips starting to move into the State.  This is the GFS Tomorrow evening (Cold air moves faster than Computers can understand so they slow it down, but in reality this image will be most likely Mid M...

     Hey Everybody! How's it goin! I'm coming with an official Forecast for New Years Eve 2016/ New Years 2017. Everybody has been counting Winter out just because we had a Mild and HUMID Christmas, Last Christmas was Even More Warm than this one and not long after New Years Winter REALLY KICKED OFF! Now back in February of this year we had two Blizzards, the First one was NASTY! I was Caught in it... The Second was bad, but not as bad as the first one. I think the second was in March. Now, with that said, IN NO WAY do I think this will happen this winter, I'm just saying this to say that a Warm Christmas means Nothing! Now on to the Forecast below!      Okay, Starting with Wednesday (Tomorrow), There is a disturbance moving past the state so Showers (Scattered) are possible from Little Rock on South and East. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED, Just the possibility of Scattered Rain. Now heading into New Years Eve, there is a Storm System that will be gathering o...

     Hey everybody MERRY CHRISTMAS EVE!!!!  Im soo sorry I'm late with my update, I been busy Christmas Shopping, then food Shopping, and NOW COOKING! I'm doing this Update While waiting on my Pecan Pie to get done. So I have to make this Quick!      My official thoughts on Christmas Day, and Night. I don't think Christmas will be a COMPLETE Washout, I think in advance of the Front we have moving through showers will be spotted at best, and Isolated. But when the front move through Showers and storms will pick up. Y'all know the theme of this, Squall Line moving from Left to Right Across the State. I DO NOT, I REPEAT, I DO NOT expect much in the way of Widespread Severe Weather. I expect exactly what we've been getting. Moderate rainfall, Lightning and Thunder. I don't expect much bad weather with this. The parameters just aren't there.      Timing, as far as timing goes, I do expect the front to move through around Midnight or a tadd ...

Hey Everybody, How's it Going!!  We have A lot to cover so I'm warning you now, this will be a lengthy Update.! So lets get right into it. This Past Weekend after all of our nice rain, we didn't get much in the way of flurries or snow at all, which was to be expected. But Saturday the Models started hinting on Possible Snow Next Weekend. Some Forecasters got all in a tissy on Social Media then people started talking about "Snow" for NEXT weekend which was THEN 7-8Days away! Let me tell y'all something people, NEVER, and I do mean NEVER BELIEVE a Person be it a Forecaster or any Weather Source when they say "There's a chance for Snow", But that Chance is 8 DAYS AWAY! Long Range Forecasting (Beyond 3-5 Days) is NEVER set in stone. Weather Models go as far out as 12 Days but Only the first 4 days of them are Credible You Understand me? So If it's beyond that 4 day period it's ONLY SPECULATION!!!!!!!! REMEMBER THAT!     Now that I got that o...

    Hey everybody, How's it going!  I just want to say I hit a huge spike in viewers here on the Weather Hawk's Blog on my Weather Update from Yesterday. I SERIOUSLY Appreciate everybody for coming here to the Weather Hawk's blog for Weather Information. Now Let's get into our active Weather Pattern Shall we!?     First thing's first, I've been Looking at the GFS (Global Forecasting System)  weather model, and it's very cold on Wednesday Night, and into Thursday of This week. Possibly Freezing-Subfreezing Temperatures in West, and even into parts of Central Arkansas. The NAM (North American Model)  is ALSO showing the EXACT same thing! Now the Timing on the air according to the Models is Late Evening on Wednesday.... Here's my deal with that, WEATHER MODELS ARE NOT GOOD WITH COLD AIR! Cold Air is Heavier and more dense, so it falls towards the equator quicker than our Computer Models can calculate! I'd bet my Bottom Dollar that IF THIS VERIFY, it wo...